Pedro Feliz’ option for 2010 apparently will not be renewed by the Phillies General Manager, despite a small cost of just five million dollars. Feliz is one of the best third base glove men in major league baseball, and his glove will be difficult, if not impossible to replace.
Recent word is that Eric Bruntlett, the Phils’ utility infielder of the past two years, is also gone. With Eric Bruntlett, the utility man who spelled Jimmy Rollins each of the last two years and pulled off an unassisted triple play this past year, now cut from the Phils’ forty man roster for 2010, two vital players and key infielders from the 2008-09 World Series championship team are now gone.
For it was in the decisive game five of the 2008 World Series Championship, with Eric Bruntlett on base, that Pedro Feliz delivered the winning hit, and Eric Bruntlett scored the winning run, in the Phils’ thrilling and history making game five win over the Rays, that won the series for the Phils and brought the Championship home to Philadelphia after 28 years.
The same game five that was played over two different days due to Commissioner Selig suspending the game for rain after allowing the Rays to tie the game in the top of the fifth against Cole Hamels, and then shutting the game, and Hamels, down, for two long days.
And now, with one fell swoop, the two guys who manufactured the winning run of the 2008 World Series are gone.
All Phillies fans everywhere should mourn the departure of Pedro Feliz & Eric Bruntlett, for they were the unsung heroes, glove men, role players, pinch runners, bench guys, guys hitting seventh, who did their job, scored a run against superior relief pitching, and got the winning run home in the final game of a World Series, when all of the Phillies superstars couldn’t.
To paraphrase an old pop singer, and perhaps the ancient Greeks at Olympia, they were Heroes, if just for one day.
And to further paraphrase the late, legendary Freddy “the Fog” Shero, Flyers Coach, legend, the coach of the 1974-75 Stanley Cup Flyers, when he spoke to Bobby Clarke, Dave Schultz, Andre DuPont, Bill Kelly and the rest of his ragtag, bluecollar, hard working Broad Street Bullies before Game Six of the 1974 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the heavily favored Bobby Orr-Phil Esposito Boston Bruins, if we win today, we will walk the ice together forever as champions. Champions, forever.
And then the Flyers walked out on the ice and beat those Bruins 1-0 becoming the first expansion franchise in NHL history to win the Stanley Cup. And they still walk the ice together forever as champions…champions forever…
That’s what Bruntlett and Feliz will always be…champions forever…
As we’ll discuss in the body of this post, Feliz is a superior glove man, and Bruntlett, for all his flaws, is an above-average glove man with speed, versatility and the ability pinch-hit and play all of the infield and corner outfield positions. Both will be difficult to replace with better ballplayers, and likely will be replaced by inferior ballplayers.
Here are the main reasons cutting Pedro Feliz (and Eric Bruntlett) is a mistake by the Phillies.
1) Pedro Feliz is widely considered to be among to top five or ten defensive third basemen in baseball, and certainly among the best three-five in the National League.
2) The Phillies, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, J.A.Happ, and possibly Jamie Moyer, going in the rotation, plan on having at least three and possibly four left-handed starters in their rotation. Pitching more left-handed starters means facing right-handed batters, which means getting more ground balls hit to the left side of the infield, particularly to the third baseman.
3) The Phillies need a good defensive third baseman to advance in the playoffs and get to the World Series each year.
4) As a strategy, keeping your gold glove shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) but sacrificing your outstanding glove man at third base when you have a predominantly left-handed pitching staff makes no sense.
5) It makes no sense because having a gold glove shortstop and an outstanding second baseman, with a bad third baseman, will lead to many more hits, many more errors and many fewer double plays, and thus many more runs allowed, especially with left-handed starters facing right-handed batters.
6) The Phillies have always played best when they have had a good glove man at third base, whether it was David Bell or Pedro Feliz. They have always had problems when they have tried to sacrifice defense at third base in favor of offense. This problem will be aggravated by having a left-handed pitching staff.
7) Eric Bruntlett was a good player off the bench defensively and as a pinch runner, and especially because he could play shortstop and third, key to a team with three-four left-handed starters. Also he could pinch-hit and substitute in late innings, and played well in the post-season and in key situations.
The alternatives to Pedro Feliz are inferior defensively and offensively, with two key exceptions, Adrian Beltre, who is much better defensively and offensively (he’s an explosive home run hitter), and Chone Figgins, who is slightly worse defensively but can field the position, but an upgrade offensively because he can get on base and score runs.
9) The alternatives to Pedro Feliz will cost more money.
10) The alternatives to Pedro Feliz may upset the clubhouse chemistry that has brought the Phils three straight NL East Division titles.
OK, let’s examine each of these points in detail. Also, I’ll consider why cutting Eric Bruntlett is a mistake as well.
First, Pedro Feliz is widely considered to be among to top five or ten defensive third basemen in baseball, and certainly among the best three-five in the National League.
This is established by a wide variety of criteria. Sources include Bill James Handbook for 2009, baseball-reference.com and Dave Pinto’s excellent baseball website, baseball-musings.com, which rates all the fielders at each position.
According to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, the Fielding Bible Awards rate Pedro Feliz the 8th best defensive third baseman in all of baseball. Those ratings are as follows;
1) Adrian Beltre (Seattle). Power, speed, defense, the whole package. Came up with Dodgers. Best third baseman available of free agents. Playoffs, NL West titles. Hit 48 homers in 2004, has more than 250 homers thru 12 seasons, but still only 31. Averaging 25 homers/year in Seattle (difficult homer run park), also can still steal bases. A plus.
2) Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay). AL East Div Title, 2008, 2008 World Series, best third baseman in AL. Perennial MVP candidate, young.
3) Scott Rolen (Cincinnati, helped win 2006 World Series for Cards, division titles, another World Series appearance, Rookie of Year 1997 for Phillies). Hall of Fame stats through age 30, injuries since then.
4) Jack Hannahan (Seattle, came up with Oakland). Bats left, throws right. Already 30.
5) Joe Crede (White Sox, helped win 2005 World Series for Chisox).
6) David Wright (Mets, helped win NL East Division title in 2006 for Mets, playoffs). Best third baseman in NL. Perennial MVP candidate, young, five tool player. Hall of Fame stats through age 27.
7) Mike Lowell (Red Sox, came up with Marlins, has won 2003 World Series with Marlins, 2007 World Series with Red Sox). Big Hitter.
Pedro Feliz (three NL East titles for Phils, World Champions 2008, NL Pennant 2009, second World Series appearance)
9) Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) (2009 NL Gold Glove). Big Hitter.
10) Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) (Division titles, playoffs, 2009 World Series, Yanks) Bound for both Hall of Fame and Hall of Shame.
Ok, that’s the top ten. Now the next ten in order:
11) Troy Glaus (cards, came up with Angels) (2002 World Championship, Angels, many division titles & playoffs).
12) Kevin Kouzmanoff (padres) (division titles & playoffs). Solid.
13) Chipper Jones (braves, probably going to hall of fame) legendary, world series champion 1995, world series 1995, 1996 & eleven consecutive NL East Division titles, .288/.411/.459 line in postseason play)
14) Casey Blake (dodgers, came up with Indians) helped Dodgers win NL West titles at hot corner. 2007 AL Central with Indians, very nearly AL Pennant with Indians. Big Hitter, can field. Twenty homer guy.
15) Blake DeWitt
16) Edwin Encarnarcion
17) Chone Figgins (Angels) Al West Titles, playoffs. Mainly speed.
18) Melvin Mora (Orioles). Good hitter.
19) Aramis Ramirez (Cubs, came up with Pirates) AL Central titles, playoffs, nearly NL pennant except for a certain fan, huge hitter.
20) Bill Hall (Seattle, came up with Brewers) NL Central Title, playoffs, big hitter. Now seems be playing outfield.
Cf the 2009 Bill James Handbook, at p. 18. (Baseball Info Solutions 2008).
It’s pretty obvious the number of World Championships, Division Titles and Playoff teams that are concentrated in this list, especially the higher you go up the list.
The top ten defensive third basemans’ teams have collectively won each of the last five World Series (2005-2009). The next ten have won a lot too, but except for Glaus & Jones, no world championships.
There are no coincidences in baseball. Defensive excellent at third base results in championships.
Of the third basemen on this list, only Rolen, Wright, Feliz and Zimmerman play in the National League. Right now, given Rolen’s age and injury conditions, it’s fair to say that the best defensive third basemen in the NL are, in order;
1) David Wright, Mets
2) Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
3) Pedro Feliz, Phillies
4) Scott Rolen, Reds
5) Troy Glaus, Cards
I’m going to reverse myself later and say that Wright should be ranked third after Zimmerman and Feliz later on, but see further down.
The best defensive third basemen in the AL are, in order;
1) Adrian Beltre, Mariners
2) Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
3) Jack Hannahan, Oakland
4) Mike Lowell, Red Sox
5) Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Some other metrics to consider. On the plus/minus system, from 2006-2008, Chase Utley at +85 was more than thirty points higher than the next rated defensive second basemen, Mark Ellis; Jimmy Rollins (the gold glove winner in the NL 2007-2009) at +42 was second rated only to Adam Everett); and Pedro Feliz at +55 was second rated only to Adrian Beltre at +63.
According to the plus/minus system, therefore, the Phillies had the best infield in baseball, defensively with Rollins, Utley and Feliz.
People complain about Ryan Howard’s defense at first base, but the fact is that even a fantastic defensive first baseman can only save you or cost you about ten runs a year at first base. It’s short, second and third where all the big run savings come in. A good defensive third baseman can save a baseball team a substantial number of runs every year.
A final point is that Pedro Feliz clearly outplayed Alex Rodriguez defensively in the World Series of 2009. Feliz got to more balls, had a better range, showed a better throwing arm, committed no routine errors (except for the double stolen base play, which was a weird play really) and turned a number of difficult ground balls into outs and double plays, whereas Rodriguez failed to get to routine grounders and made errors on routine grounders.
Feliz was clearly the better defensive third baseman in the series when the two played head to head, and he has played well in the postseason defensively two years running in 2008-2009. He also played well in the NLDS in 2007, and well for the Giants in their 2002 series run.
Second, the Phillies, with three and possibly four left-handed starters in their rotation, will have many more ground balls going to the left side of their infield than average.
Bill James and other baseball stat heads have analyzed this phenomenon extensively, but it’s simple really. With more lefties pitching, the lineups they face, due to platoon considerations, will be stacked with more right-handed bats.
Right-handed hitters tend to ground to the left side much more often than to the right side because they try to pull the ball. Many more balls will get hit to the third baseman and shortstop than to the second baseman and first baseman under those circumstances.
Consequently, with a predominantly left-handed staff, it’s vital for the Phillies to have not just a good, but an excellent glove man at third base. The Phillies can expect to see a good many more than the average number of balls hit at or around third base, and they will need a third baseman who can not only get to the ball but also make the routine play, turn the double play and make the throw across—all things that Pedro Feliz did very, very well during his tenure with the Phillies.
Third, in order for the Phillies to advance in the postseason each year, it’s vital for them to have an outstanding defensive third baseman playing the hot corner, especially with so many lefties like Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and JA Happ pitching.
Anyone watching Cliff Lee pitch could see this intuitively–a lot of balls were pulled to third base and down the third base side with Lee pitching. A good third baseman makes those into outs.
In the playoffs, they say that leather, lumber and pitching win, and that was very clear for the Phillies in both 2008 and 2009.
The key to their winning the World Series in 2008 and getting back to the World Series and winning the NL pennant in 2009 and beating tough Rockies and Dodgers teams was definitely pitching and defense.
Cliff Lee, Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton would not have been nearly as effective without the defense behind them of Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in the infield, turning ground balls into outs and double plays, and the outfield defense of Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and the contributions of Raul Ibanez.
Note that David Bell and Pedro Feliz played third base for the 2002 San Francisco Giants, which got all the way to the World Series by beating the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Giants, two pretty good teams, and won an NL West Division title.
Both Bell & Feliz played in the post-season, and both were excellent defensively and offensively for the Giants, and key players holding down the hot corner. No one could say that Rich Aurilia or Jeff Kent were great defensive players even though they were excellent hitters.
Contrast the 2008-09 Phillies with 2007, when the Phils tried to platoon Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs at third base, both poor glove men. The results in the playoffs were not too good, and the Phillies GM immediately recognized that the Phils needed to upgrade defensively at 3B, so they went out and got Pedro Feliz from the Giants.
Feliz’ extensive post-season experience came in handy in the 2009 World Series, as he seemed to come to life, batting .333 with an OPS of .705, and knocked in the winning run in Game 5 that won the Series for the Phillies. You’d have to think it was as if he’d been there before, lost, and didn’t want to lose again, because he knew exactly how bitter it felt. Based on his losing in 2002, that’s probably exactly why he did so well in the 2008 World Series for the Phillies. Post-season experience does count.
Fourth, as a strategy, keeping your gold glove shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) but sacrificing your outstanding glove man at third base when you have a predominantly left-handed pitching staff makes no sense. The Phils don’t need to add offense to their lineup—they scored plenty of runs and led the league in home runs.
Where the Phils need improvement is on the pitching side of the ledger—at the start of the season, they were near the bottom of the league in ERA, and during the first half they were allowing almost as many runs as they were scoring.
What the Phils need is more defense and pitching, not more offense. What they need are more guys like Feliz, who can field but not hit.
What helped the Phils last year was adding Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, who both helped a depleted starting staff.
With a left-handed starting staff, the last thing the Phils need to do is open up a defensive hole at third base for errors, missed throws, botched plays and missed double plays that will lead to long innings. Innings are long enough at Citizens Bank Park—quality defensive play is at a premium there.
What good will it do to have a gold glove shortstop if he’s paired with an average or poor defensive third baseman? None at all, really, if all your pitchers are left handed and all the balls are being pulled down the line to third base rather than up the middle to short or second.
It just doesn’t make sense to have three or four left-handed starters and then not have the best glove man available to play third base. Feliz was already here.
Even if they weren’t happy with Feliz’ offense, they surely could have platooned him with another player on off days, day games and on days right-handed pitchers were pitching, and kept him on the roster. And if Greg Dobbs wasn’t doing the job, surely there were other left-handed utility third baseman around to do the job. Or they could have signed Mark DeRosa to play along with Pedro Feliz—put in DeRosa for offense, Feliz for defense, and so forth.
But cutting Feliz loose made no sense at all.
Sixth, the Phillies have always played best when they have had a good glove man at third base, whether it was David Bell or Pedro Feliz. They have always had problems when they have tried to sacrifice defense at third base in favor of offense. This problem will be aggravated by having a left-handed pitching staff.
This is something one would term the “mike schmidt-scott rolen problem.”
The Phillies have been fortunate to have seen play here the greatest third baseman of all time, Michael Jack Schmidt, who was the greatest hitting third baseman of all time, and also the greatest defensive third baseman of all time, a man who created 125 plus runs a year and also saved another 50 runs a year defensively with his spectacular plays at third base.
If you normalize Schmidt’s 550 home run career to 1990s-2000 baseball, you’ll see that he would easily have hit many more than 650 home runs in his career, and hit for a far higher batting average and on base average, if he had played five run a game baseball under modern conditions, and would have made Alex Rodriguez look like an amateur.
Then, later the Phillies had Scott Rolen come up from the farm system, a third baseman who played here until his arbitration years were up, but really his best years, from the mid 1990s until around 2001 or so, and Rolen was good for around 30 homers a year, 35 doubles and a slew of great defensive plays, a 30 win share a year player. His glove work was excellent and the Phillies fans became spoiled.
Between Schmidt and Rolen we had guys like Charlie Hayes, who could pick it, and Dave Hollins, who couldn’t, and Kim Batiste, a defensive replacement who famously made an error in the 1993 NLCS but then made the game winning hit to beat Atlanta.
The Phillies did trade for Placido Polanco when they traded Rolen, and Polanco could have played third—he’s a gold glove second baseman even now with Detroit—but the Phils decided to trade him when they acquired David Bell to play third and Chase Utley came up.
Bell was a good defensive third baseman—his dad Buddy Bell was also a good glove man, and his grandfather Gus Bell a legendary slugger for the Reds. David Bell could do both—he could field and he could hit the home run. The Phillies with David Bell at third base were effective and he helped solidify their pitching corps for a period of time and made their pitchers look better.
Seventh, Eric Bruntlett was a good player off the bench defensively and as a pinch runner, and especially because he could play shortstop and third, key to a team with three-four left-handed starters. Also he could pinch-hit and substitute in late innings, and played well in the post-season and in key situations.
Let’s examine Eric Bruntlett’s defensive stats. All of these stats are from the Bill James Handbook 2009, but anyone is welcome to update them from baseball-reference.com or from former Sports Center stat guy and former Baseball Info Solutions stat guy (and my friend) Dave Pinto’s excellent fielding stats he keeps on his excellent baseball blog baseballmusings.com.
At first base, Eric Bruntlett had a perfect fielding percentage. He’s an excellent choice to replace Ryan Howard defensively in late innings.
At second base, Bruntlett had a fielding range factor of 4.18 and a fielding percentage of .929 in just five games. This would place him at the lower end of all second baseman. Second base is not Bruntlett’s best position. He’s not a good choice to replace Chase Utley in late innings or to rest Chase Utley on days off because he actually does not appear to play second base all that well. The Phillies actually need another player, a backup second baseman, to rest chase Utley during the season.
At shortstop, Bruntlett had a fielding range factor of 4.22 and a fielding percentage of .970 in nearly 280 innings of play in 2008.
Bruntlett’s fielding range is better than 40% of all regular shortstops playing in major league baseball, and his fielding percentage is certainly good enough to play shortstop at the major league level.
Bruntlett is a very good substitute shortstop, at least defensively. He doesn’t have the Rollins gold glove range factor of 4.52 or Rollins’ fielding accuracy of .988, but Bruntlett averaged 2.63 assists per game and one double play per two games. This compares with Rollins 3 assists per game and slightly higher double play rate of .53 double plays per game, or 1.06 double plays per two games.
In sum, Bruntlett is a very decent, league average or better replacement defensive shortstop.
At third base, Bruntlett had a fielding range factor of 2.86 and a fielding percentage of .955 in 132 innings played at third base in 2008. He averaged 1.78 assists per nine innings, and .14 double plays per nine innings, or roughly one double play each seven full nine inning games he would have played at third base.
In terms of range factor, 2.86 would have placed Bruntlett among the top six third basemen defensively in all of baseball—only Carlos Guillen, Blake DeWitt and Ryan Zimmerman had higher range factors, and Melvin Mora and Mike Lowell also had 2.86 range factors.
In terms of fielding percentage, Bruntlett made 2 errors in 132 innings played, which works out to approximately 19 errors for a season, if he had played 140 nine inning games at third base. David Wright made 21 errors in 159 games, and fielded .962, which is pretty comparable to what Bruntlett did, and Wright is considered a gold glove candidate every year. Chipper Jones fielded .958 and made 21 errors in just 115 games. There were several starting NL third baseman with more errors per nine innings and lower fielding percentages than Bruntlett’s.
In terms of assists, it’s the same story. Bruntlett is solid.
In terms of double plays, Adrian Beltre was probably the best in all of baseball, turning over 27 double plays in just over 1200 innings—working out to .20 double plays per nine innings—or roughly one double play per five full nine inning games. But he’s the best in baseball defensively at third.
Let’s look at someone who’s good, but not great defensively. Aramis Ramirez turned 17 double plays in close to 1300 innings, so his double play rate is closer to .11, or just one double play per 19 full nine inning games played.
So we see, right away, that Eric Bruntlett, if he were a full-time third baseman, would rank among the better third baseman in the National League defensively, as far as turning the double play.
For a full and comprehensive comp defensively, let’s look at David Wright of the NY Mets. Appraising defensive ability is like appraising houses; each one is unique and has its own intrinsic value, but you can approach a value by comparing similar and comparable players and houses.
Wright has a defensive range factor of 2.51, a fielding percentage of .962, makes 1.80 assists per nine innings of play, and turns over .13 double plays per nine innings played. Those numbers are virtually the same as, or not very much different than, Eric Bruntlett.
Moreover, Wright is a fair comparison, since the Mets, like the Phillies, with Santana and Perez in their rotation, have at least two left-handed starters, which means that Wright faces about the same number of ground balls as the Phillies’ third basemen would be expected to face.
Compare this to Pedro Feliz, who had a fielding range factor of 2.72, a fielding percentage of .974, made 2.05 assists per nine innings of play, and turned over .175 double plays per nine innings played. That’s 1.05 double plays per six nine inning games.
Well, it sure looks like Pedro Feliz is a lot more like Adrian Beltre defensively than like David Wright defensively.
The numbers tell the story—which is why Pedro Feliz is actually, after you look at the numbers carefully, not the third best third baseman in the National League, but the second best third baseman in the National League, immediately after 2009 NL Gold Glove winner Ryan Zimmerman.
Obviously, Eric Bruntlett may look like a bad fielder if he goes in and subs for guys who can field as well as Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley.
The basic point, the take away message of this analysis is, Eric Bruntlett is good enough defensively to play third base as a starter on many major league teams. In the American League, where you have a DH, and may need defense at third base instead of a hitter, he’d be a great addition to many teams needing help at the hot corner.
In the national league, where you need defensive help or a guy to rest your shortstop or third baseman, he’s the perfect bench guy.
This brings us to the last part of why it’s a mistake to let Eric Bruntlett go.
Chase Utley will turn 31 in December of this year, and Jimmy Rollins will turn 31 in November of this year in about ten days’ time. Both of them are reaching that point where they need to rest during the season. Pedro Feliz will turn 35 next year, and if the Phillies had re-signed him, he also would have needed a caddy.
Managing a team that plays in the post-season every year is different than managing a team that never makes it in. You’ve got to manage for a possible 181 game season. In 2008, even going through the playoffs and World Series in three, five and five games, the Phillies played 175 games. In 2009, the Phillies played four, five and six games in the playoffs and World Series, adding an additional fifteen games and five weeks to their schedule, playing 177 games in all.
That’s not the National League anymore—those are schedules like the old 1920s-1950s Pacific Coast League, which would play from March until November every year, a 180 game schedule or something like that.
With that kind of long schedule, you need infield replacement help, you can’t play every infielder every inning of every game.
In addition to which, Bruntlett also played the outfield, playing leftfield with a reasonable range factor and error rate. Bruntlett also pinch-ran frequently during his time with the Phillies, and served as a right-handed pinch-hitter, although defensive replacement was his forte. Bruntlett did get hits on occasion, but his career .240/.315/.344 line suggests that he’s just not that good a hitter, though he did punch nine doubles and two homers for the Phils in 2008 and occasionally hit one hard for them in 2009.
Bruntlett will turn 32 next march of 2010 and is still a useful, veteran utility player who would not have cost very much to keep around. It’s very likely a mistake for the Phillies to let him go.
If we remember the way he came in to pinch run in Game Five of the 2008 World Series, and came home to score the eventual winning run on Pedro Feliz’ winning hit, that Eric Bruntlett, of all people, was the hero to score the winning run of the 2008 World Series, we will remember that he was hero for the Phillies during his tenure here.
Sometimes it’s bad luck to cut your role guys. The Yankees let Aaron Boone go after 2003, even though he was the hero of the 2003 ALCS, the guy who hit the walk off homer against the Red Sox to save their 2003 AL pennant, and signed some guy named A-Rod instead. They didn’t get back to the World Series for six years.
Sometime character is more important than talent. Ray Boone, his son Bob Boone, and Bob Boone’s three sons have all been winners in their baseball careers.
Bob Boone was an integral part of three NL East Division winning teams, a playoff team, and a World Series champion here in Philadelphia from 1973-1981.
After the Phillies let Bob Boone go, they only won one more NL East Division title, got back to the World Series, but lost to the Orioles in five games, and Steve Carlton and the rest of the pitching staff was never the same again, even if Carlton had a good year in 82’ and John Denny won the Cy Young in 1983.
Carlton was not as effective in 1983. Boone was a huge reason why rookies like Bob Walk and Dickie Noles had such good seasons in 1980, and why the Phillies won the World Series despite having such a young pitching staff. Not to mention his outplaying Darrell Porter in the Series hands down.
Boone continued to be a great catcher for many more years. When he went to the California Angels, he helped them win two AL East Division titles in 1982-86, and very nearly AL Pennants in both those years, going to the limit of the ALCS before falling to the Brewers in five in 82’ and to the Red Sox in 86 (Donnie Moore famously blowing the saves in two games).
Ray Boone, Bob’s Dad, was a great player for the Tigers and other clubs, and an excellent third baseman.
Bret Boone, as we all know, was a key player on the Mariners’ club that won a league record 116 games in 2001.
Aaron Boone we already spoke about. He is a hero forever in Yankees’ lore.
Character guys like these are hard to come by.
Eighth, the alternatives to Pedro Feliz are inferior both offensive and defensively, with two important exceptions, which are Adrian Beltre & Chone Figgins. Polanco is not really a third baseman, but we’ll consider whether he could come here as a bench player to take over Bruntlett’s job.
The Phillies are considering these alternatives;
1) Chone Figgins
2) Mark DeRosa
3) Placido Polanco
4) Adrian Beltre
All of these are inferior defensively at third base, EXCEPT FOR ADRIAN BELTRE, WHO WOULD BE A BIG STEP UP BOTH OFFENSIVELY AND DEFENSIVELY.
First, let’s talk about how great Adrian Beltre is.
Defensively, he’s the best third baseman in baseball, hands down. His stats are incredible. He has the best fielding range, the best assists, double play rates and best error rates of any third baseman in baseball, and he leads the plus/minus charts in the Bill James Handbook for individual seasons as well as for successive seasons among all third baseman by large margins.
Among all experts who voted the Fielding Bible Awards in the 2009 Bill James Handbook, Adrian Beltre was the consensus #1 pick among all who voted, except for Mike Murphy, who is wrong, and the Tango Fan Poll, who voted him #2 after Scott Rolen. Bill James, Dan Casey, Hal Richman, Joe Posnanski, John Dewan, Mat Olkin, Rob Neyer all rate Adrian Beltre the #1 defensive third baseman in all of baseball, along with the BIS Video Scouts.
Adrian Beltre won the AL Gold Glove at third base in 2007 and 2008. Pedro Feliz has never won a Gold Glove in the National League, although he is widely considered to be among the best third basemen defensively in the National League. If Beltre comes over to the NL, he immediately becomes an instant candidate for the NL Gold Glove award at third base.
The same guys basically rate Pedro Feliz between 4, 5, 7 and 8, and he finished 7th in the same poll that Adrian Beltre clearly finished first in by a very, very wide margin.
We already discussed Beltre’s numbers above in the discussion on Bruntlett.
Now let’s talk about offense with Adrian Beltre.
Here’s Pedro Feliz career line: .254 BA/.293 OBA/.422 SA.
Here’s Adrian Beltre’s career line: .270 BA/.325 OBA/.453 SA.
These guys are not on the same planet offensively.
Beltre helped lead the Dodgers to the playoffs in 2004. Where they lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Beltre went 4 for 15 with a run scored and an RBI, so his line wasn’t all that impressive. But he got the Dodgers in. Even though Seattle has not made it to the playoffs lately, the Mariners have had seasons in which they won 88 games in 2007 and 85 games in 2009, and Beltre was a key part of both clubs. Also, Seattle has a pitching staff with many lefthanders, so Beltre is used to playing with lefties and seeing a lot of balls come his way. The view here has to be that Beltre is a winner.
Feliz’ post-season numbers dropped off in 2009, but he had a phenomenal World Series in 2008, batting .333 with an OPS of .702 and driving in the game winning run in game 5 of what was clearly a pitching-dominated series. Feliz was the key to winning the World Series in 2008, and his phenomenal glove play clearly was better than Alex Rodriguez at third base in the 2009 World Series, and helped Cliff Lee win two tough ballgames to keep the Phillies in it for six games until the Yankees pushed through in Game Six in Yankee Stadium. Feliz’ defense and offense helped the Phillies obtain a 3-0 lead in Game Three and also helped them obtain a 4-4 tie in Game 4; clearly because of Feliz, the Phils had opportunities to win key games in the 2009 Series and win the Series outright. He kept things winnable at all times.
Also, Feliz has played in three prior post-season series with the Giants including their 2002 World Series run where they fell short against the Angels, so he has actually played in four NLDS and three NLCS and three World Series, as well as in the 2008 and 2009. That’s a lot of post-season experience.
Adrian Beltre has a silver slugger award for his 48 homer year at third base with the Dodger in 2004. He also finished 2d in the MVP voting that year, and was an all-star. He also led the entire National League in home runs that year, something that almost no Los Angeles Dodger has ever done due to the nature of their home park and its horribly negative effect on home run hitting.
Beltre has a career OPS of .778, while Feliz has a career OPS of .715.
Beltre for his career averages 89 runs created per game. His career slugging average is better than league slugging average, and his career OPS is better that league OPS average. In short, Beltre is more productive, offensively than the average major league player, and creates a lot of runs.
Feliz by contrast averages 62 runs created per game. Feliz’ career slugging average is lower than league slugging average, and his career OPS is lower than league OPS average. In short, Feliz less productive offensively than the average major league player, and does not create as many runs over the course of a season as Beltre.
In fact, Feliz will on average produce only 70% as many runs as Beltre, while Beltre will produce 143% more runs than Feliz on average.
That’s a pretty wide offensive gap.
1) Adrian Beltre will create between 27 more runs per year, on average, than did Pedro Feliz. Beltre can be expected to average around 89 runs created for the Phillies.
Some comparable numbers for other Phillies; Chase Utley usually creates around 110-115 runs; Ryan Howard usually creates around 120 runs; Jimmy Rollins usually creates 100-110 runs a year, and created 124 runs in his MVP year of 2007.
Having Adrian Beltre at third base creating 89 runs a year will create an offensive all-star infield for the Phillies overnight.
2) Adrian Beltre will SAVE the Phillies many runs at third base over Pedro Feliz. He’s a better defensive player than Feliz in nearly every way—better glove, better arm, better range, better at turning the double play, more accurate arm, etc.
Adrian Beltre, in fact, can be expected to win the NL Gold Glove if he arrives in Philadelphia to play third base. That means saving another 10-50 runs per year defensively.
3) Adrian Beltre is a much faster player and better base runner than Pedro Feliz. He has stolen 98 bases in his career, caught 36 times for a stolen base percentage of 73%, and he runs the bases very well, meaning that he gets from first to third, from second to home and so forth, much better than Feliz does, which again means more scoring.
4) Adrian Beltre, despite having twelve years big league experience, will only turn 31 years old in April of 2010. He is substantially younger than Feliz and has far more career upside.
5) Beltre had an off year hitting only 9 homers in 2009, but first, that was only in 110 games (it’s around 13 for a season) and second, he’s hit 103 homers in five years in Seattle. In three of those years he’s hit 25 or more homers, and he’s averaged better than 20 homers a season. Seattle’s a tough home run park and we’ll get to that below. Third, he was injured last season, and fourth, Seattle has acquired Hanrahan from the A’s and Hall from the Brewers, so they are looking at other options at third.
6) Adrian Beltre’s power numbers are truly impressive when you take park considerations into account. He can be expected to hit far, far more home runs playing at Citizens Bank Park than he hit at either Seattle or LA.
a. From 1998-2004, playing as an LA Dodger, he hit 137 home runs in seven season, an average of nearly twenty home runs a year, with a career high of 48 homers in 2004. Of course, this was playing in Dodger Stadium, one of the WORST home run parks in the majors.
Did this affect Adrian Beltre’s home run totals from 1998-2004? Of course it did.
Of those 137 home runs Beltre hit as a Dodger, only 65 came at Dodger Stadium; 72 came on the road.
Some of the splits are pretty radical; in 1999, Beltre hit 6 homers at home, 9 on the road; in 2000, Beltre hit 7 homers at home, 13 on the road, in 2001, Beltre hit 4 homers at home, 9 on the road, in 2002 Beltre hit 7 homers at home, 14 on the road. Even in his career year of 2004, Beltre hit 23 homers at home and 25 on the road.
b. From 2005-2009, Beltre has hit 203 homers at Seattle, averaging more than 20 homers a year.
But Seattle is, if anything, even a worse home park to hit home runs in than Dodger Stadium. Home runs are depressed by a factor of .90 relative to normal in Seattle’s home stadium, which means that only 90% of league normal amount of home runs can expect be hit at Seattle’s home park.
Some of Beltre’s home/away splits illustrate this. In 2005, Beltre hit 7 homers at home and 12 on the road; in 2007 11 at home and 15 on the road; and in 2008 10 at home and 15 on the road.
c. Career, Beltre has 250 home runs through age 30—but he’s been badly hurt by his home parks. Of those 250 home runs, 137 have come on the road—and just 113 at home.
Playing his career in horrible home run parks like Seattle and Dodger Stadium have cost Beltre between 25 and 50 home runs in his career—which means that he should be at around 275-300 career home runs right now.
d. If Beltre were to come to Citizens Bank Park—a home park with a home run factor of 130—it could reasonably be expected that over the course of three years, instead of having a typical Adrian Beltre year of 25 homers, 10 at home and 15 on the road, that we should see an increase of 130/90 in the amount of home runs that Beltre would hit at home at Citizens Bank Park, or approximately 1.44 more homer at home.
Applying that to his usual home run year, it could reasonably be expected that Adrian Beltre would hit 15 homers at home and 15 on the road, for an average total of 30 homers per year, if he was playing in the Bank.
e. Even assuming just the average of twenty homers a year, with 7 at home and 13 on the road as he now hits at Seattle, Beltre would hit an additional three homers a year playing at the Bank at Home, and thus hit 10 at home and 13 on the road, for an average of at least 23 homers a year. But he probably will learn to pull the ball into the short left field porch and do much better than that.
f. Over the course of three years, playing in the Bank, averaging between 23-30 homers a year, and now hitting as many or more homers at home as he does on the road, Beltre will begin to approach 350 career home runs within a three year period.
Over the course of five years, he will very likely approach 400 career home runs. Playing in the Bank, he could eventually finish out his career and become a career 500 home run hitter at this pace.
g. It could also be expected, even at his age and experience level, that Beltre could have a breakout year and hit 40 or more home runs again, with the majority of those at the Bank, because his power is to left field.
In short, Adrian Beltre is the ideal candidate to replace Pedro Feliz at third base. He has the perfect offensive and defensive credentials to fit in with the Phillies, and buried underneath the statistics is the fact that Adrian Beltre is one of the best home run hitters in all of baseball. He’s just waiting for a chance to show the world that he can blast home runs in a park suited to his one greatest talent—the long ball.
And what are the Phillies known for if not the long ball? Based on this analysis, it’s obvious that Adrian Beltre is the guy that the Phillies should be signing to replace Pedro Feliz. He fits in best by far. He knows how to field a left-handed staff, he’s a better glove, and he’s a home run hitting machine whose eyes will light up with delight every time he comes to the Bank. His offensive numbers will swell at home instead of shrinking at home.
Adding Adrian Beltre will immensely strengthen the Phillies at third base. It’s the one answer, the only answer to who can replace Pedro Feliz at third base.
Now let’s talk about the other alternatives, which are inferior offensively and defensively, except for Chone Figgins, who is an acceptable and interesting possibility, except that in order for him to be effective, he’d have to bat leadoff.
1) Mark DeRosa – Everyone should like Mark DeRosa. He quarterbacked Penn to two impresssive Ivy League titles, and he’s a heck of an athlete.
You don’t see too many Penn guys in professional sports (apologies to the great Chuck Bednarik), but DeRosa is an excellent player.
That aside, DeRosa is not an excellent third baseman. He used to be a decent shortstop, but DeRosa will turn 35 next year (yes, 1993 & 1994 were that long ago, Penn football fans) and he doesn’t have the arm to play short anymore, so he’s been playing second base mainly.
Although he’s been playing some third base for the Cards, among others, he’s not a good third baseman defensively.
Offensively, his numbers are no better than Pedro Feliz, and although he’s had some power the last couple of seasons, at age 35, he can’t sustain that for many more seasons.
He did have good seasons with the Cubs in 2008 and with the Cards last year, and with Texas in 2006, but for most of his career he’s been a part-time guy.
DeRosa’s career line is .279BA/.348OBA/.422SA, which is not much different than Feliz, and his career slugging average is below league.
Two points in favor of DeRosa
first, he’s a philly penn guy. that’s good.
second, he’d be a good replacement for eric bruntlett, and he could spell chase utley and ryan howard against tough lefthanded hitters, and also play leftfield for raul ibanez in the same way. as a bench player, who spelled a regular five times a week, he’d be ideal, especially because he hits lefties very well. as a substitute 3d baseman he makes lots of sense. but not a regular 3d baseman on a world series team.
Signing him in combination with Adrian Beltre or Chone Figgins makes a lot of sense; signing DeRosa to play 3d base all the time makes no sense.
2) Chone Figgins – An acceptable alternative to Feliz…an interesting player with unique and strange skills set…
a. First of all, not a good defensive player, inferior to Feliz. As we saw above, Feliz is the #7 defensive player while Figgins is ranked #17 among all major league third basemen.
b. However, these differences may not be as great as we think. Feliz has a defensive range of 2.72, Figgins is 2.65; Feliz defensive percentage is .974 with 19 errors made in 129 games which is 24 errors per 162 games. Figgins defensive percentage is .978 with 6 errors made in 105 games, which is 9-10 errors per 162 game season.
Feliz makes 2.05 assists per 9 innings; Figgins makes 1.82 assists per 9 innings. Those are pretty close.
However, that total has to be examined carefully, because Figgins only plays behind one left-handed starter, while Feliz plays behind three and four left-handed starters, so obviously Feliz has a lot more chances for assists.
Feliz turns one double play ever six games, as cited above, while Figgins turns one double play approximately every seven games, which again is pretty close, but data skewed by the left-handedness of the Philly staff.
c. In summary, Figgins may not be as inferior defensively as initially assumed, although the consensus is he is inferior.
The statistics suggest that he can field the position and that the Phillies will not lose that many runs with Figgins at third base. He will miss some balls due to his height but he will also get to some balls due to his quickness. He actually may work out at third base to be an acceptable option to Feliz.
d. Second, he will be 32 in January of 2010, so you’re not buying youth here.
This is even worse when you consider that Figgins’ entire game is based on speed. He’s only 5 foot 8 and 180, which is kind of heavy for a guy that’s 5 foot 8 and a ballplayer.
He stole 62 bases in 2004, leading the American League but that number has dropped by around ten every season to where he’s stealing only 30 or 40 a year, with a success rate of around 75%.
Notably, Figgins led the American League in caught stealing last year, with 17 outs made while trying to steal second, while making it successfully 42 times, which means he only made it 71% of the time.
The Phillies as a team make it about 85% of the time.
Basic baseball statistics show that if you get thrown out more than 33% of the time while trying to steal second, you’re actually costing your team runs, so Figgins is so slow at this point that he actually shouldn’t be stealing bases at all.
Figgins also led the American League in caught stealing in 2007 as well.
e. Figgins also had 17 triples in 2004, but now he’s only hitting around 7, and the most doubles he’s ever had in a year is 30, which is shockingly low for a guy with this kind of speed.
It means, basically, that he’s not a line drive hitter or a power alley hitter like Victorino or Rollins; he’s basically not a good hitter at all.
f. Figgins has only 31 home runs in eight professional seasons, an average of barely four a year. His career line is .291BA/.363OBA/.388SA. It’s a weird line.
g. Now here’s where Figgins is good; he is great at getting on base and getting around the bases and scoring.
His statistics at advancing from first to third on singles, from first to home on doubles, from second to home on any kind of hit, and so forth, are stratospherically above league average.
Figgins is a run-scoring machine. For his career, he’s averaged 103 runs scored a game. This is a truly impressive statistic.
The hidden part of speed is advancing the bases, not merely stealing; and since the Phillies have a lot of hitters who can hit behind Figgins and advance him, all Figgins has to do is get on base and let the lumber behind him do the rest.
h. Figgins gets on base a lot. He walks a hundred times a year and has a career on base average of .363. This, along with his great speed and fearlessness on the bases, makes him a prototypical leadoff hitter.
Also, despite his having just a .388 career slugging average, Figgins’ high OBA gives him a career OPS of .751, which is higher than league average and propels him into the area where he gets on base so often, he is both a run creating as well as a run scoring machine.
i. In fact, Figgins, for his career, averages 95 runs created per 162 games played, which is very impressive. That’s a far higher total than either Feliz or Beltre, and Beltre is a truly excellent offensive third baseman.
Figgins creates those runs in an entirely different manner than Beltre, however—Figgins does it by walking, bunting, getting infield hits, running out grounders, beating out errors, etc and getting on base any way he can—and then terrifying opposing pitchers with his speed game, or advancing the bases quickly if the next player makes a hit. Figgins is, in fact, a legitimately great leadoff player.
j. The only question with Figgins is, will making Figgins the leadoff hitter drive Jimmy Rollins crazy? J Ro has been the leadoff hitter for so long, the guy who leads the pack, that he may not like hitting second or whatever behind Figgins.
That may ruin the club chemistry, and club chemistry is a fragile thing. On paper, however, it does look a lot better to have Figgins bat first, and then Rollins second.
Then you can bat Victorino in the six hole or seven hole behind either Werth or Ibanez, and he’s a much stronger hitter. Or, if Rollins is having a slump or an off day, you move Victorino up to second and bat someone else seventh.
It certainly gives the lineup more flexibility.
k. Well, there is one other question, and that is Figgins’ durability. Beltre has played nearly every game of every season, excepting two seasons, last year and one season with the Dodgers, whereas Figgins has missed a lot of games for the Angels with injuries. You need a backup plan b with Figgins, you can’t depend on him for 162 games.
Finally, the Phillies are considering bringing back Placido Polanco. Aside from been there, done that, Polanco is now 34 years old and will turn 35 in October of 2010.
He has never played third base regularly except here in Philadelphia back when Larry Bowa was manager.
Polanco’s career line is .306 BA/.350 OBA/.416 SA, which means he has a career OPS of .766, but the holes in his game are well known.
He hardly ever walks, although he also is very hard to strikeout. He hits a lot of doubles, but hardly ever hits a home run. He has speed, but not much of it.
He won the gold glove in the AL last year, but the fielding bible guys at Bill James Handbook 2009 rate him no better than the sixth best second baseman in baseball, and very far from the top. They rate Brandon Phillips, Mark Ellis, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Orlando Hudson all better than him defensively. Two guys even named Robinson Cano as better on their ballots, and it’s true, Cano has some great numbers defensively.
But what really sticks out in my mind is a terrible play Polanco didn’t make in the playoff game against Minnesota this past off-season, a ball hit up the middle that Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins would have gotten to with ease, but that Polanco just didn’t get to at all. I just don’t see the range there anymore.
The numbers say that Polanco has a better range factor than Chase Utley, but we who are Phillies fans saw both of them play here at the same time, and we all know that Chase Utley is about five times the glove man that Polanco is. That’s why the Phillies traded away Polanco.
Also, Polanco was not as good a third baseman as David Bell—so why would the Phillies bring him back now when they have the option of putting Chone Figgins or Adrian Beltre, both of whom are natural third baseman—and better third baseman—at the position.
One thing you could do with Placido Polanco is use him as a utility player to spell Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He might not like coming off the bench, but if you think about it, resting Chase Utley or Ryan Howard against tough lefthanders and giving them a day off once or twice a week and starting Polanco in their place makes sense. And then you have Polanco around to spell a Figgins or Beltre at third base.
Maybe Polanco (or DeRosa) is the solution to the Eric Bruntlett problem. He’s been a Phillie before, and the fans did like him. He plays hard, and undoubtedly, having been to the World Series with the Tigers and having lost, he is hungry for a title. And he’s played with these guys before, so he might be willing to accept a part-time role. And he can play first or second base well and hit well enough to make everyone forget about Eric Bruntlett. In fact, if anyone gets hurt, he can play for a month or two because Polanco is a real ballplayer.
So one solution might be to sign both Figgins AND Polanco, and sit back and watch the Phillies roll to another world series. Or Figgins and DeRosa. Or Beltre and DeRosa. Or Beltre and Polanco. Even I’m getting confused now.
What is clear is that DeRosa and Polanco are second baseman who can give howard and utley rest against lefties, while Figgins and Beltre are true third baseman who each bring offense and defense to third base. Figgins is a leadoff get on base speed guy, while Beltre is all power and home runs, with some speed too. Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Polanco won the gold glove in the al at 2b last year, he’s a doubles singles hitter while DeRosa is more of a power guy.
Ninth, the alternatives to Pedro Feliz will cost more money. There is no doubt that signing Beltre, or Figgins, or Polanco, or any combination of them, will cost more money than it would have cost to re-sign Feliz and Bruntlett. This is pretty obvious. On the other hand, the Phillies pretty nearly sold out every game last year. They’re swimming in cash. One rabid fan even tried to sell herself, allegedly, to get World Series tickets, although that’s disputed, of course, by her attorneys.
Tenth, the alternatives to Pedro Feliz may upset the clubhouse chemistry that has brought the Phils three straight NL East Division titles. Here’s where the rub, as Shakespeare or Hamlet would say, lies. Beltre or Figgins might be upgrades offensively, defensively or at the leadoff position, but what will they bring to the clubhouse? Is Beltre a winner? Will Figgins move to leadoff upset Jimmy Rollins? Will Polanco be happy as a bench player after starting for the Tigers? Again, clubhouse chemistry is important.
To summarize, the Phillies need to make a decision. The clear-cut decision is to sign Adrian Beltre. He’s clearly better offensively and defensively at third, and he’ll probably hit more homers in the Bank.
The other option is to sign Chone Figgins, and make him your leadoff hitter. That means putting Jimmy Rollins in the two hole, and moving Shane Victorino down to #6 or #7 in the lineup.
If the Phillies sign Figgins, they almost have to sign Polanco or DeRosa or another comparable player to cover for Figgins in case he gets hurt. Also, they need such a player to do what Bruntlett did, and spell Utley, Howard and Rollins, especially spell Howard and Utley against tough lefties and on day games after night games. They need a right-handed guy who can field, hit and has speed. Polanco is perfect for all of these, so Polanco is actually perfect to replace Bruntlett, and he’s the right age and fit for a championship ball club. And he would get a lot of at bats.
The Phillies did something similar in 1993 when they signed Mariano Duncan, a guy who had won the World Series in 1990 with the Reds, and used him to spell Mickey Morandini and John Kruk on the left side of the infield. Duncan turned out to be a brilliant choice as a bench player and role player.
Polanco could be that guy again. He played well for the Phillies in 2003 and 2004, and coming off a gold glove year in Detroit, he could be that guy again in 2009 for a championship level ball club.
So perhaps the Phillies do have alternatives. They will cost some money, but there are always alternatives.
–art kyriazis, philly
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