CROSBEE – A LETTER PUBLISHED IN SI IN APRIL OF 1975 ABOUT A HAVERFORD SCHOOL LUNCHTIME GAME
February 25, 2012
DEDICATED TO THE MEMORY OF THE LATE TIMOTHY LING CLASS OF 1976 GOALKEEPER SCHOLAR ATHLETE BUSINESSMAN FATHER HUSBAND CLASSMATE FRIEND TIM WE WILL ALWAYS MISS YOU ATHLETIC HALL OF FAME MEMBER 1974 & 1975 UNDEFEATED SOCCER TEAMS, HAVERFORD SCHOOL
In 1974-75, my classmates at HAVERFORD SCHOOL had evolved a new kind of game to play at lunchtime using the lacrosse fields adjacent to the old Upper School. It used a FRISBEE and the object was to advance the FRISBEE and throw it into the LACROSSE NET past the opposite. The resulting game was aptly called CROSBEE.
It became very popular and nearly everyone was playing nearly every day. What the internet has brought to light is that in April of 1975, I and my kid brother JOHN KYRIAZIS (who was also attending HAVERFORD SCHOOL) co-wrote and had published in SPORTS ILLUSTRED MAGAZINE a short letter about CROSBEE AND HAVERFORD SCHOOL. The letter appeared in the section then known as “The 19th Hole”. The letter and website follow:
19th Hole: The Readers Take Over
CROSBEE AND GUTS
Sir:
We thoroughly enjoyed the article by J.D. Reed on Frisbee as a sport (“They Are My Life and My Wife”, Feb. 24). At the Haverford School, which we attend, Frisbee has become much more than a lunchtime amusement. Our game is called Crosbee, and there is nothing like it outside of our school. It is played four men to a side, on a 60-by-40-yard field, and the object is to throw the Frisbee into the opponent’s goal. The rules are simple: the man with theFrisbee is allowed to run, unless he is touched by an opponent, in which case possession changes. To forestall a touch, players can pass off or “down” the Frisbee by putting the disk on the ground and tapping it-Play then stops for a moment, whereupon the player can pass off or run again, although he cannot shoot from a downed position. A toss out of bounds results in loss of possession. The goalie, who mans a 6-by-6-foot lacrosse net, can come up on offense when his team has possession of the Frisbee.
A mixture of lacrosse, hockey and Frisbee, Crosbee is fast and furious. A Crosbee Intramural League has evolved, complete with Saturday schedules and playoffs.
ARTHUR KYRIAZIS
JOHN KYRIAZIS
The Late, Great Timothy Ling
Obituaries
Timothy Hugh Ling, president and chief operating officer of Unocal Corp. and an active member of the Los Angeles Philharmonic Assn. board, died Wednesday after an ice hockey workout in El Segundo. He was 46.
The cause of death was not immediately known, and an autopsy will be performed.
Ling spent six years at the El Segundo-based oil company, initially as its chief financial officer, then as executive vice president of Unocal’s North American operations, and finally as the No. 2 executive and a member of the board of directors.
A native of Philadelphia, Ling won a hockey scholarship to fund his high school education at the Haverford School. In 1982, he earned a degree in geology from Cornell University.
While working as a geologist for the U.S. Geological Survey, he met Kimberly De Mello, whom he married in 1987.
Ling earned an MBA from Stanford University in 1989, and hoped to create a small oil company with friends. Instead, he spent seven years as a consultant at McKinsey & Co. in Los Angeles, becoming a partner and co-writing a management book called “Real Change Leaders” before leaving for Unocal in 1997.
Despite frequent travel, Ling was a mentor to children from the urban core, helped with Boy Scouts, coached his eldest son’s ice hockey team and was active in the Young Presidents’ Organization.
In addition, Ling was a director of Maxis Communications, a Malaysian wireless service provider; a director of the American Petroleum Institute and the Domestic Petroleum Council; and a member of an advisory board for the Department of Energy. He was also on the management board for the Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a member of the Haverford Leadership Council.
“He was just a huge bundle of energy,” said friend Jamie Montgomery of the investment banking firm Montgomery & Co. “He helped everyone, everywhere along the way.”
In addition to his wife, Ling is survived by their three children, Hudson, 7, Tommy, 4, and Peter, 2, all of Pacific Palisades; his parents, Gilbert and Shirley Ling of Marion, Pa.; his sister, Eva Monahan of Wynnewood, Pa.; and his brother, Dr. Mark Ling of Atlanta.
Funeral arrangements are pending.
In lieu of flowers, the family requests that any donations be made to the Tim Ling Memorial Fund, St. Matthew’s Episcopal Church in Pacific Palisades, or to the Tim Ling Scholarship Fund, in care of the Los Angeles Philharmonic Assn.
http://articles.latimes.com/2004/jan/30/local/me-ling30
cf http://www.palisadespost.com/obituaries/content.php?id=130
Ok, we’re now into the Elite Eight, and I had the following picks and results so far;
1) East – originally, at round of 64, Kentucky v. West Va. This was also my pick before the Sweet Sixteen Round. This is looking pretty good. I really like Kentucky to win this. I thought Kentucky played an excellent game against Cornell, especially defensively. However, West Virginia is an excellent team with a tough, tough coach we used to see a lot here in the A-10 and later the Big East when he was coaching at Cincinnati. Two great teams and two great coaches. What a game. I will say, originally, I had W.Va. winning this game; i’m revising that pick in light of Kentucky looking so good in this tournament. But of course, that’s a conditional probability pick; if W.Va. does win, then it validates my original bracket pick.
DEMARCUS COUSINS DESTROYED CORNELL UNDERNEATH & INSIDE IN THE SWEET SIXTEEN ROUND MAKING ROOM FOR JOHN WALL ON THE PERIMETER
2) South – originally, at round of 64, i had picked Louisville v. Baylor to come out of the pack. Well, I got that half right, but not the half you would have expected. Before the Sweet Sixteen, knowing that Louisville was out (we call that conditional probability) I picked Duke to win, which of course they did. In light of what I know now, I would have Duke beating Baylor. Incidentally, Baylor put a hurting on St. Mary’s. How lame is Villanova for losing to St. Mary’s? And by the way, should new Baylor President get halfcourt seats or what for this team???
Final Four pick Duke/Baylor winner v. Ky/W.Va winner – this is sort of a no-brainer, and I had this on my original bracket before the tournament opened. I think both Ky and W.Va are both better than Duke, even though W. Va. got a #2 seed. So I see Ky going to the final four over Duke, or alternatively, W. Va going to the final four over Duke. I think Duke’s dance ends at the elite eight.
That’s not to underestimate coach K. Anyone brilliant with a complicated last name ending with K, hey, I have to like that guy, right?
By the way, speaking of the U.Cincinnati, think today’s players are good? check out U.Cincinnati great’s Oscar Robertson’s college stats:
Season School FG% FT% TRB AST PTS
1957-58 Cincinnati .571 .789 15.2 35.1
1958-59 Cincinnati .509 .794 16.3 6.9 32.6
1959-60 Cincinnati .526 .756 14.1 7.3 33.7
Career Cincinnati .535 .780 15.2 4.8 33.8
Yes, that’s right–the Big O averaged a double-double his entire college career–a double double that ran around 35 points and 15 rebounds a night. That was in college, and freshman weren’t allowed to play back then. Imagine what his FOUR year stats would have been.
You think that was pretty good by today’s standards? Today, we think it’s pretty good if a kid averaged barely 15 points and 10 rebounds. That earns him a first round NBA spot.
OSCAR ROBERTSON - THE GREATEST PLAYER IN U.CINCINNATI HISTORY KNOWN AS THE "BIG O" - WON AN NBA CHAMPIONSHIP WITH KAREEM ABDUL-JABBAR WITH MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Of course, Cincinnati is named for the Roman hero Cincinnatus. If you’ve studied Latin, you know who he is. The rest of you, Google him up. He was a famous hero of the early Roman Republic. Big O and Cincinnatus had a lot in common.
3) Midwest – Originally I had Kansas v. Georgetown in the Elite Eight of this bracket before the round of 64. That bracket was completely busted, of course. Before the round of sixteen, knowing what had happened in the first couple of rounds, I remade picks and picked Michigan State to win their game, and Ohio State to win their game. Well, I got that half right. Tennessee with their orange uniforms and orange sneakers just plain outshot and outhustled Ohio State, thus short-circuiting the Big Ten matchup we were forecasting. Instead, the Elite Eight matchup will be the improbable Mich State #5 seed vs. the Tenn #6 seed for the Midwest Regional Final. This is an interesting matchup.
My heart says to root for the Spartans and Tom Izzo, a veteran, wily coach. However, my head says that Tennessee beat Ohio State while Michigan State lost to Ohio State during the season; that Tennessee lost to Purdue by a point or two while Mich State lost by a lot to Purdue; and that Tennessee beat Kansas during the season. Also that Kalin Lucas is out for Michigan State, while Tennessee is deep and balanced in both scoring and rebounding.
I’m going to call this a flip, but the edge to Tennessee here. So Tennessee to the Final Four. But Mich State definitely has a shot.
4) West – Well, I had Syracuse and Pitt in my original pre-round of 64 bracket picks. That’s pretty busted. After the first two rounds, before the sweet sixteen, I repicked Syracuse and Kansas State. Syracuse was upended by Butler, while Kansas State barely survived a two overtime onslaught from a feisty Xavier team.
That leaves us with Kansas State v. Butler. Here, I like Kansas State over Butler. I believe Kansas State will defeat Butler and get to the Final Four.
Moreover, I believe Kansas State will also defeat the winner of Mich State/Tenn and get to the final round.
This then sets up a final round of Kentucky v. Kansas State.
Here, again, I still like Kentucky to win it all.
–art kyriazis, philly, cradle of college hoops
The Palestra, also known as the Cathedral of College Basketball, is a historic arena and the home gym of the University of Pennsylvania Quakers men's and women's basketball teams, volleyball teams, wrestling team, and Philadelphia Big 5 basketball. Located at 215 South 33rd St. in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on the campus of the University of Pennsylvania, near Franklin Field in the University City section of Philadelphia, it opened on January 1, 1927. The arena originally sat about 10,000, but now seats 8,722 for basketball. The Palestra is famed for its close-to-the-court seating with the bleachers ending at the floor with no barrier to separate the fans from the game. At the time of its construction, the Palestra was one of the largest arenas in the world. It was one of the first modern steel-and-concrete arenas in the United States and also one of the first to be constructed without interior pillars blocking the view.
source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestra
MARCH MADNESS – NCAA SWEET SIXTEEN UPDATE & GREEK INDEPENDENCE DAY MARCH 25, 2010 UPDATE
March 25, 2010
Today, as we survey the wreckage of the first and second rounds of the NCAA basketball tournament, 2010 version, which has destroyed nearly everyone’s brackets, including mine, it is wise to remember the words of one of the seven sages of Ancient Greece, Heraclitus, who noted that “everything is in flux,” or more modernly, “everything changes constantly.”
HERACLITUS ONE OF SEVEN SAGES OF ANCIENT GREECE "ALL IS FLUX"
Since today is GREEK INDEPENDENCE DAY, everything I write today will really be about GREECE and the incredible influence GREECE and GREEK THOUGHT has had upon modern life. Specifically, I will show you how GREECE & GREEK THOUGHT have had a major influence on MARCH MADNESS AND THE NCAA BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT. You won’t even believe it, but it’s so.
BETTER ONE HOUR OF FREEDOM THAN FORTY YEARS OF SLAVERY & JAIL
Today marks the 189th anniversary of the birth of the modern Greek nation-state and the uprising against the Ottoman Empire by the ethnic Greeks and Greek-speaking majority of Roumeli against their Ottoman overlords on March 25, 1821. After nine long years, that struggle resulted in the creation of the modern Greek state. And of course, we who are Greek-American have to celebrate it, since the actual Greeks in Greece are temporarily on strike against government austerity measures. Hey, I wish I could retire at 41 with a full salary and benefits too, but as one of my Harvard economics professors once noted, TANSTAAFL “THERE AINT NO SUCH THING AS A FREE LUNCH.” (actually, that phrase was coined by sci fi giant Robert A Heinlein, 1907-1988, if you grok me). Frackin’ great line, though.
ROBERT A HEINLEIN & ISAAC ASIMOV AT PHILLY NAVAL SHIPYARD 1944
Many, many effects of that revolution can be seen here in America.
1) The very idea of athletic competitions and tournaments is Greek in origin. The Greeks invented the Olympics in 776 BC. They had them on a four year rotation, along with three other games, the Pythian, Nemean and Isthmian Games, the four being known as the “Pan-Hellenic Games.” The point is the Ancient Greeks had an athletic competition to determine a winner in each event every year. This is exactly what the modern NCAA does. The logos of the NCAA even use Olympic/ancient Greek style laurel wreaths on some of their publicity and trophies, and even up to the present day, the concept of AMATEURISM, the notion that an athlete should not be paid for participating in sports, is uniquely and completely ancient Greek in origin, as the Romans customarily paid their Olympic and other athletes, or compelled them to compete through slavery. It was the Ancient Greeks who prided themselves that competition should be amateur and free of payment, and participated in by free citizens of city-states only for the glory of the competition. This very concept is what animates the entire notion of the NCAA and of college sports; its entire spirit and animus are Ancient Greek in conception and thought. The Ancient Romans had no such distinction; to them, athletes were paid the same as anyone else. Moreover, the concept of colleges today relate closely to the concept of ancient Greek city-states. There are many more parallels, but you get the idea. Winning at sports was the sine qua non of excellence in Greek culture. Note that Christianity for many years discouraged athletic competition—it was a modern development with the rediscovery of humanist thought, and the rediscovery of Greek thought, that athletics made a comeback in modern society. The Greek notion of athletic competition heavily influenced the Romans, who made stadiums, chariot races and gladiatorial combat part of their culture. Consequently, it is very clear that the very notion of having an NCAA tournament every year is nothing if not Greek in origin.
ANCIENT OLYMPIA AT ELIS GREECE SITE OF THE ANCIENT OLYMPIC GAMES 776BC-495 AD
2) Many colleges and college nicknames are Greek in origin. For example, Michigan State is in the Sweet Sixteen. Their nickname is the “Spartans.” They were nicknamed, largely, in tribute to the Greeks of the Greek Revolution of the 1820s, largely due to Philhellenic (Greek-loving) feeling. Most Americans were sympathetic with the Greeks, 1) because the Greeks were struggling for democracy against autocracy 2) because the Founders were largely influenced by Ancient Greece in their models for what a democracy like America should look like and 3) because the Greeks were Christians struggling against the Turkish Infidels, which is what we used to call Muslims in the 19th Century before PC discourse deconstructed plain language and speech sometime in the past 20 years. In fact, Turks used to be called “the Terrible Turk” by people like no less than Prime Minister Gladstone, and the Ottoman Empire, after the Greeks won, used to be called the “Sick Man of Europe,” and the question of how to carve up the fading Ottoman Empire was called the “Eastern Question.” It wasn’t settled finally until World War I, and not really finally until 1923. But that’s another story. So I like Michigan State. Didn’t you watch “300”? “We are SPARTANS!!!”
KING LEONIDAS & 300 LEGENDARILY HEROIC SPARTANS OF THERMOPYLAE BRILLIANTLY DRAMATIZED IN MOVIE "300" (2006) STARRING GERARD BUTLER
3) U. Tennessee remains in the Sweet Sixteen. Vanderbilt is in Nashville, Tennessee, where they have an actual full-scale replica of the Parthenon built which you can go see today. It is complete and accurate to the last detail. In fact, throughout the South, there is more Greek Revival and neo-classical architecture than almost anywhere in the US, especially on college campuses. This is certainly true at Vanderbilt, at Duke, at Kentucky, at U. Tennessee, at U.Va certainly, and many of the other schools left in the Sweet Sixteen.
PARTHENON REPLICA WHICH STANDS IN NASHVILLE, TN TODAY EXACT DUPLICATE OF PARTHENON OF ANCIENT ATHENS, GREECE BUILT BY PERICLES IN 5TH CENTURY B.C.
About the Parthenon
The Parthenon stands proudly as the centerpiece of Centennial Park, Nashville’s premier urban park. The re-creation of the 42-foot statue Athena is the focus of the Parthenon just as it was in ancient Greece. The building and the Athena statue are both full-scale replicas of the Athenian originals.
Originally built for Tennessee’s 1897 Centennial Exposition, this replica of the original Parthenon in Athens serves as a monument to what is considered the pinnacle of classical architecture. The plaster replicas of the Parthenon Marbles found in the Naos are direct casts of the original sculptures which adorned the pediments of the Athenian Parthenon, dating back to 438 B.C. The originals of these powerful fragments are housed in the British Museum in London.
The Parthenon also serves as the city of Nashville’s art museum. The focus of the Parthenon’s permanent collection is a group of 63 paintings by 19th and 20th century American artists donated by James M. Cowan. Additional gallery spaces provide a venue for a variety of temporary shows and exhibits.
The Parthenon is open year round Tuesday – Saturday, 9:00 – 4:30. Additional hours during June, July & August: Sundays, 12:30 – 4:30 p.m. The Parthenon will be closed on July 4, Labor Day, the Thursday & Friday of Thanksgiving week, Christmas Eve, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. Admission: Members free; Adults – $6.00; Children 4-17 – $3.50 (under 4 free); Seniors 62+ – $3.50. Phone number 615-862-8431.
http://www.nashville.org/parthenon/
See? And you thought you had to travel to GREECE to see the Parthenon? Nope, you can go to NASHVILLE, TENNESEE AND SEE IT! AND THIS PARTHENON ISN’T IN RUINS!!! (No Turks or Venetians to blow it up in a meaningless war in the 17th century). Oh–and they have some pretty darn good music there, too–and hey, Vandy and U. Tennessee are pretty darn good schools.
4) Many of you have probably watched the show “GREEK” on TV, which details “GREEK” or fraternity/sorority life on campuses around the country. What you probably don’t know is that fraternities and sororities have their origins with the Greek War of Independence. So many college students were in sympathy with the Greeks and their War of Liberation from the Turks during the 1821-1830 period, that many of the campuses and universities founded societies named after Greek letters such as “Phi Beta Kappa” or “Alpha Chi Rho” to celebrate their “fraternity” and “solidarity” with the Greek cause of independence, liberty and freedom. So, if you’ve ever been a fraternity or sorority member, you actually have pledged fraternity, sorority, brotherhood and sisterhood, to the nation of Greece and its sacred causes for liberty, democracy, Christianity, and its ongoing fight against the Turks. Thus the “GREEK” show really is, in actually, about Greece. It even takes place at fictional “CYPRUS-RHODES UNIVERSITY.” Hey, I’ve been to Rhodes, that island rocks, every single hotel opens out to a private beach, and every bar is open all nite long. And Cyprus, even though only half of it is open (the other half is still occupied by a muslim country from the north starting with “T” and ending with “Y”) is the hottest tourist and banking destination in the Middle East. Plus, Garo Ypremian is from Cyprus, and he once kicked a touchdown! He told me so 18 holes in a row at a pro-am golf tournament. “where else but in america could a 5 foot 7 cypriot find work in the NFL as a professional kicker?” he said. To his credit, he was a great golfer.
The very origins of sorority and fraternity life are from the Greek Revolution and Greek War of Independence, and Philhellenism among American college students. In fact, many of those students went to Greece and fought for the Greek cause. In the NCAA tournament, it’s obvious that frat and sorority and Greeks are the main hoops fans. Thank you Greece and Greek culture, again. And here’s to our favorie fraternities, Kappa Tau Gamma (ΚΤΓ), Omega Chi Delta (ΩΧΔ), and our favorite sorority, Zeta Beta Zeta (ΖΒZ). May we all be Greeks forever!
EVERYONE'S IDEA OF COLLEGE FUN IS SUMMARIZED IN THE SHOW "GREEK"
5) Syracuse is a heavy favorite to get to the final four. Syracuse University and Syracuse, NY are named for the ancient Greek city-state of Syracuse. Syracuse was the richest and most famous Greek city-state of the ancient world. Situated on one of the three corners of Sicily, Syracuse was as powerful in its heyday as Rome, Carthage, Athens or Persia, and made a play for hegemony against Rome and Carthage during the 5th and 4th centuries BC. Unfortunately for Syracuse, despite being neutral in the 2d Punic War between Carthage and Rome, Rome decided to lay siege to Syracuse in order to plunder its enormous stores of gold. Rome simply needed the money. Archimedes, the most brilliant mathematician and scientist of ancient times, was a native of Syracuse. He famously designed siege defense machines which pulled Roman ships out of the water and crashed them against the rocks, other machines which focused the light of the sun on Roman ships and set them on fire, etc. You get the picture. The Romans were kept out of Syracuse for years by the high walls of Syracuse and Archimedes brilliance. When they finally breached the walls, the Romans were instructed to bring Archimedes alive to the Roman commander, but of course they got it wrong and killed Archimedes by mistake. The Romans plundered billions of dollars in gold, silver and other treasures from Syracuse. P.S. Italy owes that money back to Greece, today, with interest, under international law, in my view. Syracuse was neutral at the time. Also, indemnity for Archimedes’ death is independently owed by Italy to Greece. One supposes that would sort of cancel out any debts owed by Greece to the EU. In fact, one might suppose that Italy should just hand over the deed to, well, Italy, since the interest has been piling up for 2,400 years or so on that loan. Or have I just lost my Elgin Marbles? (many thanks to my good friend the brilliant Mike Reiss on that line).
ANCIENT SICILY WAS MAINLY GREEK CITY STATES WITH SYRACUSE THE LARGEST RICHEST AND MOST FAMOUS GREEK CITY STATE OF ANTIQUITY
THE WAR FOR SYRACUSE AND THE DEATH OF ARCHIMEDES
source: http://www.livius.org/sh-si/sicily/sicily_t17.html
The philosopher Plutarch of Chaeronea (46-c.122) is the author of a series of double biographies in which he compared Greeks and Romans, and tried to explore the nature of some type of man. They contain much historical information. The following text is taken from his Life of Marcellus, and describes how this Roman general captured Syracuse during the war between the Romans and the Carthaginian general Hannibal. During the siege the famous scientist Archimedes (287-212), was killed. The translation was made by Walter Charlton and appeared in the Dryden series.
Marcellus now was a third time created consul, and sailed to Sicily. For the success of Hannibal had excited the Carthaginians to lay claim to that whole island; chiefly because, after the murder of the tyrant Hieronymus, all things had been in tumult and confusion at Syracuse. Therefore, the Romans also had sent before to that city a force under the conduct of Appius, as praetor. [...]
At this time Marcellus, first incensed by injuries done him by Hippocrates, commander of the Syracusans (who, to give proof of his good affection to the Carthaginians, and to acquire the tyranny to himself, had killed a number of Romans at Leontini), besieged and took by force the city of Leontini; yet violated none of the townsmen; only deserters, as many as he took, he subjected to the punishment of the rods and axe.
But Hippocrates, sending a report to Syracuse that Marcellus had put all the adult population to the sword, and then coming upon the Syracusans, who had risen in tumult upon that false report, made himself master of the city. Upon this Marcellus moved with his whole army to Syracuse, and encamping near the wall, sent ambassadors into the city to relate to the Syracusans the truth of what had been done in Leontini. When these could not prevail by treaty, the whole power being now in the hands of Hippocrates, he proceeded to attack the city both by land and by sea.
The land forces were conducted by Appius: Marcellus, with sixty galleys, each with five rows of oars, furnished with all sorts of arms and missiles, and a huge bridge of planks laid upon eight ships chained together, upon which was carried the engine to cast stones and darts, assaulted the walls, relying on the abundance and magnificence of his preparations, and on his own previous glory; all which, however, were, it would seem, but trifles for Archimedes and his machines.
These machines he had designed and contrived, not as matters of any importance, but as mere amusements in geometry; in compliance with King Hiero’s desire and request, some little time before, that he should reduce to practice some part of his admirable speculation in science, and by accommodating the theoretic truth to sensation and ordinary use, bring it more within the appreciation of the people in general.
Eudoxus and Archytas had been the first originators of this far-famed and highly-prized art of mechanics, which they employed as an elegant illustration of geometrical truths, and as means of sustaining experimentally, to the satisfaction of the senses, conclusions too intricate for proof by words and diagrams. As, for example, to solve the problem, so often required in constructing geometrical figures, given the two extremes, to find the two mean lines of a proportion, both these mathematicians had recourse to the aid of instruments, adapting to their purpose certain curves and sections of lines.
But what with Plato’s indignation at it, and his invectives against it as the mere corruption and annihilation of the one good of geometry, which was thus shamefully turning its back upon the unembodied objects of pure intelligence to recur to sensation, and to ask help (not to be obtained without base supervisions and depravation) from matter; so it was that mechanics came to be separated from geometry, and, repudiated and neglected by philosophers, took its place as a military art.
Archimedes, however, in writing to King Hiero, whose friend and near relation he was, had stated that given the force, any given weight might be moved, and even boasted, we are told, relying on the strength of demonstration, that if there were another earth, by going into it he could remove this. Hiero being struck with amazement at this, and entreating him to make good this problem by actual experiment, and show some great weight moved by a small engine, he fixed accordingly upon a ship of burden out of the king’s arsenal, which could not be drawn out of the dock without great labor and many men; and, loading her with many passengers and a full freight, sitting himself the while far off, with no great endeavor, but only holding the head of the pulley in his hand and drawing the cords by degrees, he drew the ship in a straight line, as smoothly and evenly as if she had been in the sea. The king, astonished at this, and convinced of the power of the art, prevailed upon Archimedes to make him engines accommodated to all the purposes, offensive and defensive, of a siege. These the king himself never made use of, because he spent almost all his life in a profound quiet and the highest affluence. But the apparatus was, in most opportune time, ready at hand for the Syracusans, and with it also the engineer himself.
When, therefore, the Romans assaulted the walls in two places at once, fear and consternation stupefied the Syracusans, believing that nothing was able to resist that violence and those forces. But when Archimedes began to ply his engines, he at once shot against the land forces all sorts of missile weapons, and immense masses of stone that came down with incredible noise and violence; against which no man could stand; for they knocked down those upon whom they fell in heaps, breaking all their ranks and files. In the meantime huge poles thrust out from the walls over the ships sunk some by the great weights which they let down from on high upon them; others they lifted up into the air by an iron hand or beak like a crane’s beak and, when they had drawn them up by the prow, and set them on end upon the poop, they plunged them to the bottom of the sea; or else the ships, drawn by engines within, and whirled about, were dashed against steep rocks that stood jutting out under the walls, with great destruction of the soldiers that were aboard them. A ship was frequently lifted up to a great height in the air (a dreadful thing to behold), and was rolled to and fro, and kept swinging, until the mariners were all thrown out, when at length it was dashed against the rocks, or let fall. At the engine that Marcellus brought upon the bridge of ships, which was called Sambuca, from some resemblance it had to an instrument of music, while it was as yet approaching the wall, there was discharged a piece of rock of ten talents weight, then a second and a third, which, striking upon it with immense force and a noise like thunder, broke all its foundation to pieces, shook out all its fastenings, and completely dislodged it from the bridge.
So Marcellus, doubtful what counsel to pursue, drew off his ships to a safer distance, and sounded a retreat to his forces on land. They then took a resolution of coming up under the walls, if it were possible, in the night; thinking that as Archimedes used ropes stretched at length in playing his engines, the soldiers would now be under the shot, and the darts would, for want of sufficient distance to throw them, fly over their heads without effect. But he, it appeared, had long before framed for such occasions engines accommodated to any distance, and shorter weapons; and had made numerous small openings in the walls, through which, with engines of a shorter range, unexpected blows were inflicted on the assailants. Thus, when they who thought to deceive the defenders came close up to the walls, instantly a shower of darts and other missile weapons was again cast upon them. And when stones came tumbling down perpendicularly upon their heads, and, as it were, the whole wall shot out arrows at them, they retired. And now, again, as they were going off, arrows and darts of a longer range inflicted a great slaughter among them, and their ships were driven one against another; while they themselves were not able to retaliate in any way. For Archimedes had provided and fixed most of his engines immediately under the wall; whence the Romans, seeing that indefinite mischief overwhelmed them from no visible means, began to think they were fighting with the gods.
Yet Marcellus escaped unhurt, and deriding his own artificers and engineers, “What,” said he, “must we give up fighting with this geometrical Briareus, who plays pitch-and-toss with our ships, and, with the multitude of darts which he showers at a single moment upon us, really outdoes the hundred-handed giants of mythology?”
And, doubtless, the rest of the Syracusans were but the body of Archimedes’ designs, one soul moving and governing all; for, laying aside all other arms, with this alone they infested the Romans and protected themselves. In fine, when such terror had seized upon the Romans that, if they did but see a little rope or a piece of wood from the wall, instantly crying out, that there it was again, Archimedes was about to let fly some engine at them, they turned their backs and fled, Marcellus desisted from conflicts and assaults, putting all his hope in a long siege.
Yet Archimedes possessed so high a spirit, so profound a soul, and such treasures of scientific knowledge, that though these inventions had now obtained him the renown of more than human sagacity, he yet would not deign to leave behind him any commentary or writing on such subjects; but, repudiating as sordid and ignoble the whole trade of engineering, and every sort of art that lends itself to mere use and profit, he placed his whole affection and ambition in those purer speculations where there can be no reference to the vulgar needs of life; studies, the superiority of which to all others is unquestioned, and in which the only doubt can be whether the beauty and grandeur of the subjects examined, of the precision and cogency of the methods and means of proof, most deserve our admiration. It is not possible to find in all geometry more difficult and intricate questions, or more simple and lucid explanations. Some ascribe this to his natural genius; while others think that incredible effort and toil produced these, to all appearances, easy and unlabored results. No amount of investigation of yours would succeed in attaining the proof, and yet, once seen, you immediately believe you would have discovered it; by so smooth and so rapid a path he leads you to the conclusion required. And thus it ceases to be incredible that (as is commonly told of him) the charm of his familiar and domestic Siren made him forget his food and neglect his person, to that degree that when he was occasionally carried by absolute violence to bathe or have his body anointed, he used to trace geometrical figures in the ashes of the fire, and diagrams in the oil on his body, being in a state of entire preoccupation, and, in the truest sense, divine possession with his love and delight in science. His discoveries were numerous and admirable; but he is said to have requested his friends and relations that, when he was dead, they would place over his tomb a sphere containing a cylinder, inscribing it with the ratio which the containing solid bears to the contained. Such was Archimedes, who now showed himself, and so far as lay in him the city also, invincible.
While the siege continued, Marcellus took Megara, one of the earliest founded of the Greek cities in Sicily, and capturing also the camp of Hippocrates at Acilae, killed above 8,000 men, having attacked them whilst they were engaged in forming their fortifications. He overran a great part of Sicily; gained over many towns from the Carthaginians, and overcame all that dared to encounter him.
As the siege went on, one Damippus, a Spartan, putting to sea in a ship from Syracuse, was taken. When the Syracusans much desired to redeem this man, and there were many meetings and treaties about the matter betwixt them and Marcellus, he had opportunity to notice a tower into which a body of men might be secretly introduced, as the wall near to it was not difficult to surmount, and it was itself carelessly guarded. Coming often thither, and entertaining conferences about the release of Damippus, he had pretty well calculated the height of the tower, and got ladders prepared.
The Syracusans celebrated a feast to Artemis; this juncture of time, when they were given up entirely to wine and sport, Marcellus laid hold of, and before the citizens perceived it, not only possessed himself of the tower, but, before the break of day, filled the wall around with soldiers, and made his way into the Hexapylum. The Syracusans now beginning to stir, and to be alarmed at the tumult, he ordered the trumpets everywhere to sound, and thus frightened them all into flight, as if all parts of the city were already won, though the most fortified, and the fairest, and most ample quarter was still ungained. It is called Achradina, and was divided by a wall from the outer city, one part of which they call Neapolis, the other Tycha.
Possessing himself of these, Marcellus, about break of day, entered through the Hexapylum, all his officers congratulating him. But looking down from the higher places upon the beautiful and spacious city below, he is said to have wept much, commiserating the calamity that hung over it, when his thoughts represented to him how dismal and foul the face of the city would be in a few hours, when plundered and sacked by the soldiers. For among the officers of his army there was not one man that durst deny the plunder of the city to the soldiers’ demands; nay, many were instant that it should be set on fire and laid level to the ground: but this Marcellus would not listen to.
Yet he granted, but with great unwillingness and reluctance, that the money and slaves should be made prey; giving orders, at the same time, that none should violate any free person, nor kill, misuse, or make a slave of any of the Syracusans. Though he had used this moderation, he still esteemed the condition of that city to be pitiable, and, even amidst the congratulations and joy, showed his strong feelings of sympathy and commiseration at seeing all the riches accumulated during a long felicity now dissipated in an hour. For it is related that no less prey and plunder was taken here than afterward in Carthage. For not long after they obtained also the plunder of the other parts of the city, which were taken by treachery; leaving nothing untouched but the king’s money, which was brought into the public treasury.
But nothing afflicted Marcellus so much as the death of Archimedes, who was then, as fate would have it, intent upon working out some problem by a diagram, and having fixed his mind alike and his eyes upon the subject of his speculation, he never noticed the incursion of the Romans, nor that the city was taken. In this transport of study and contemplation, a soldier, unexpectedly coming up to him, commanded him to follow to Marcellus; which he declining to do before he had worked out his problem to a demonstration, the soldier, enraged, drew his sword and ran him through. Others write that a Roman soldier, running upon him with a drawn sword, offered to kill him; and that Archimedes, looking back, earnestly besought him to hold his hand a little while, that he might not leave what he was then at work upon inconclusive and imperfect; but the soldier, nothing moved by his entreaty, instantly killed him. Others again relate that, as Archimedes was carrying to Marcellus mathematical instruments, dials, spheres, and angles, by which the magnitude of the sun might be measured to the sight, some soldiers seeing him, and thinking that he carried gold in a vessel, slew him. Certain it is that his death was very afflicting to Marcellus; and that Marcellus ever after regarded him that killed him as a murderer; and that he sought for his kindred and honored them with signal favors.
http://www.livius.org/sh-si/sicily/sicily_t17.html
Q.E.D. Archimedes was brilliant, the Romans stole all the Greeks’ money, and Syracuse was a neutral city whose neutrality was blatantly violated by the Romans in the 2d Punic War. And the Romans did it for the money. Plutarch is pretty much a reliable source.
PLUTARCH - ANCIENT GREEK HISTORIAN - A RELIABLE SOURCE ON THE FALL OF SYRACUSE AND THE DEATH OF ARCHIMEDES
ARCHIMEDES – THE GREATEST MATHEMATICIAN OF ANCIENT TIMES AND DEFENDER OF SYRACUSE AGAINST THE ROMAN SIEGE
MY PICKS THEN AND NOW
Of 32 first-round picks, I only got 19 right, for barely a 59% percentage. That looks good until you realize by flipping a coin I’d get 50%, so basically that’s a 9% winning percentage. Not very impressive. The only two brackets I have reasonably correct are the East, where I have Kentucky meeting West Virginia in the Regional Final, which can still happen, and the South, where I had Duke meeting Baylor in the Regional Final. Of those, I had West Virginia upsetting Kentucky in my original bracket and going to the final four, and Duke beating Baylor to get to the Final Four. In the East bracket, I was totally busted as I had Kansas hitting Georgetown in the regional. Oops! Can you say University of Northern Iowa? In the West, I had Syracuse hitting Pitt. From there I had Kansas and Pitt in the final four, and Pitt v. West Va in the finals, with West Va winning. Well, that clearly was wrong. I did pick Villanova to lose in the second round, although it was to Richmond, and not to St. Mary’s, but I’ve never thought much of Jay Wright as a tournament coach, much less an NCAA coach. He had a good run last year, but usually ‘Nova has done poorly in both the Big East and the NCAA tournaments. Temple, by contrast, has usually done well in A-10 and NCAA tournaments, and Fran Dunphy has coached many fine teams not only at Temple, but at Penn and LaSalle before that.
In light of the first two rounds, I’d have to revise all that. In the East, I think Kentucky-West Virginia, first of all, is sort of the championship within the championship. Second, I believe Kentucky will win. I am also assuming that Kentucky will beat Cornell. West Virginia will beat Washington. In the South, Duke will handle Purdue, while St. Mary’s dance will end at the hands of Baylor, although that’s a bit more of a flip. It doesn’t really matter, since Duke will beat the winner of that game and advance to the final four. So it will be Duke v. Kentucky in that bracket. At this point, Kentucky will beat Duke in a good game, but John Wall is simply better. Also Calipari is a match for coach K.
The Midwest is tougher. Of course, I love the Spartans, and they will beat UNI. Ohio State is still a #2 seed, and they should handle Tennessee. That leaves an interesting Big Ten match up of Mich State v. Ohio State in the Regional Final, which I have to like Ohio State, but then again, Tom Izzo is a terrific coach, so really, it’s a flip. I have to favor Ohio State, but Michigan State has the coaching. Then again, the Spartans will be without one of their key players due to injury. Finally, in the West regional, I like Syracuse to beat Butler, although Butler is good and playing well. I also like Kansas State to beat Xavier, although again, Xavier is good and playing well. Neither will be easy games. That leaves Syracuse against Kansas State in the regional final. Here you have a #1 against a #2, and a real dogfight. I like Syracuse, but both teams are talented and well-coached. I like Syracuse to go to the final four. Out of that bracket, then, I like Ohio State v. Syracuse, and in that match up, I actually think Syracuse has an easier game against either Ohio State/Michigan State than they did against Kansas State, and Syracuse advanced to the final Round.
The final round therefore will be Syracuse against Kentucky, and this will be a terrific game. I like Kentucky here, but it will be a terrific game.
After notes: I was stunned to see Cornell beat an outstanding Temple team, but Cornell is legit—they have a 7-footer with hands who can pass, rebound and shoot, and they’ve surrounded him with a good point guard and several excellent three point shooters who can bomb it from way downtown. So you can play inside-outside all day long, and Temple was stuck double-teaming low or pressing on the perimeter, and getting burned on both ends. Cornell put up 78 points on Temple—and Temple allowed no more than 50 something in the A-10 against great teams like URI and Richmond, and shut down Xavier defensively in the regular season. And Cornell then went out and destroyed Wisconsin for good measure. No wonder Cornell has been on the front page of the WSJ for like a week straight.
Did I mention that Cornell is in ITHACA, NY? You remember Ithaca–that’s the place ODYSSEUS or as he’s known in latin, ULYSSES was from. He was a pretty famous king who went to TROY (another city in NY and also a famous kingdom in ASIA MINOR) to fight the TROJAN WAR, then got lost on the way back.
ULYSSES story of how he gets back to ITHACA is told in the screenplay and movie, “O WHERE ART THOU BROTHER?”, which of course is based upon the novel ULYSSES by James Joyce, which of course is based upon a famous old poem in decapentasyllabic metred Homeric Ancient Greek by an old blind goat named HOMER, called the ODYSSEY.
In ancient times, everyone was required to not only read this book but to memorize and recite it. ALEXANDER THE GREAT so loved the book, he kept a copy of it under his bed, along with the ILIAD.
So yes, even CORNELL has ties to ancient greece, in fact, their very town is the embodiment of all things greek–didn’t they read the poem by Cavafy about returning to Ithaca at Jackie O’s funeral???? Isn’t that in the last collection of poems by her daughter??? Everyone knows what HOME is–it’s ITHACA.
ITHACA LEGENDARY HOME OF ODYSSEUS AKA ULYSSES IN THE ODYSSEY GREEK ISLAND OFF THE IONIAN COAST OF SOUTHERN GREECE
And right across from Cornell is ITHACA COLLEGE–alma mater of my cousin–and of course, the setting for ROAD TRIP, one of the ten greatest films ever made about college life. And yes, everyone has been with a girl like Amy Smart once in their lives. Not. But if you’re Odysseus, you can spend five years with a hot siren, and chalk it up to mental defect or the effect of some goddess like nectar, and still plead the fifth to your wife, who remains faithful for yeah, 20 years.
Cornell is the best basketball team I’ve seen with four white guys on the floor since maybe the Boston Celtics of Bird-McHale-Ainge-Rick Robey-Parrish of the early 80s. Those Celtics had four white guys and they could flat out play. Of course, they got better, NBA championship better, when they got rid of Robey and got Dennis Johnson, who could flat out PLAY, plus he could shut down Andrew Toney, the Boston Strangler and ever-underrate Sixers sharpshooter, as Simmons points out in his recent fantastic book.
–art kyriazis, Philly hoops guy
March 25, 2010
LARRY BIRD OF FRENCH LICK, INDIANA & INDIANA STATE ON COVER OF SI 1977 WITH TWO CHEERLEADERS WHO ARE NOW YOUR MOTHERS OR GRANDMOTHERS
The Madness Begins
March 15, 2010
I can’t believe Temple got the #5 seed while Nova got a #2. Georgetown played really well down the stretch, by the way. That was a great Big East final.
I took my boys to the penn-cornell ivy league championship game in november. that was fun, at franklin field. i still can’t believe penn won at harvard.
cornell won the ivy over harvard barely, but they have to play temple in the first round, and temple is very, very good this year, that’s a bad draw for cornell. temple almost never loses in the first round of the ncaa. coming out of the bracket, temple has uphill all the way, but texas might actually beat kentucky, although john calipari has to be the best coach on the planet, he used to torture temple when he was at umass, he drove john chaney crazy.
also, i like richmond to win their first round game, and then upset villanova in the 2d round. richmond has a really good team and nova never plays well in the tournament. jay wright is a horrible tournament coach. richmond gave temple all they could handle inthe a10 final and richmond beat temple in the regular season. richmond is a great team this year, much better than a #7 seed. that’s a 2-7 matchup that’s bad for nova.
i was watching spike lee on 30-30 on espn on that reggie miller thing and 3 points.
first, reggie miller has to be the most overrated player in NBA history. he could only do one thing, the three point jumper, and that was it. He did it well, but he couldn’t pass, penetrate, dunk, rebound, run, steal or do any of the other things that an NBA Hall of Fame guy does.
second, Patrick Ewing, for all his greatness, came up short in two of the biggest games of his life, game 7 against Hakeem in the NBA finals, and the NCAA title game against Villanova in 1985, of which this is the 25th anniversary of Nova upsetting Georgetown, or Patrick Ewing choking unbelievably, depending on how you look at it. Based on how awful Ewing was in his NBA finals against Hakeem, i’d bet Nova could have beaten Georgetown in a 7 game series, and, in fact, Nova did handle Georgetown if not outright beat them pretty well that season in Big East play.
Third, Spike Lee claimed “New York is the cradle of basketball.”
Uh, Spike, New York is the cradle of incredible wealth and incredible poverty, a lot of models and caviar and restaurants, and some good hoops players, but PHILLY is the cradle of liberty and hoops, pal.
ALL the great hoops players (and jazz players) have been from philly, not NY. Earl the Pearl Monroe, Wilt the Stilt Chamberlain, Rasheed Wallace, Tyreke Evans, Kobe Bryant, the list is endless.
John Coltrane is from Philly. Dizzy Gillespie grew up here. Lee Morgan was from Philly. Philly Jo Jones. Hank Mobley, McCoy Tyner, Archie Shepp, Byard Lancaster, Mickey Roker, Bill Harris, Calvin Massey. Are You Kidding Me?????
Philly is like the Jazz/Hoops capital of the earth. Doesn’t anyone remember Grover Washington Jr playing the national anthem at Sixers games? and he was like the WORST sax guy ever to come out of philly! and he was great! but hey, he was no JOHN COLTRANE soloing for hours on soprano sax!
Dr. J played here for TWELVE YEARS. He played in New York for four years. New Yorkers like to remember that it was longer, but hey, too bad.
We were at the Palestra the other week and there were no less than several HUNDRED NBA all stars who played their high school ball in philly pasted on the walls there. Maybe a thousand. Maybe more. I couldn’t count them all. That doesn’t count the guys who were kept out of the league for gambling, or who blew out their knees, or just didn’t have the grades to go to college.
It’s not even close–Philly v. NY in hoops is like PROS V JOES–NY being the JOES.
Oh, and by the way, Alex Rodriguez took steroids and needed an instant replay to win the world series last year.
And I didn’t see him tying Reggie “Reggie Bar” Jackson’ HR record of 5 dingers in a World Series like Chase Utley did–and Chase being about 1/2 the size of Reggie, by the way, who was enormously strong and had arms like a bricklayer.
Hey, the Yankees are great. But Philly’s got the Hoops. Even the guys at Sports Center know it’s Philly when it comes to Hoops.
And when was the last time a NY university made it into the NCAA exactly?
Columbia never gets in. NYU doesn’t have a team. St. Johns has fallen off dramatically. Syracuse is way upstate. CCNY had its glory days when the court was surrounded by caged wire fences.
In all the years, NY had exactly one great player–Kareem Abdul Jabbar, aka Lew Alcindor. But he hates NY. He changed his name, became a Muslim, and never goes back to NY. He’s become such an LA/Cali guy, you’d never know he was a NY guy to begin with.
But i loved the guy in Enter the Dragon with Bruce Lee, doing kung fu and all. Now that was awesome–way better than Wilt in that Conan movie.
–art k, philly
NEW BLOG WEBSITE ADDED FOR SPORTS POSTS – SPORTSPHILLY
December 5, 2009
For future sports posts, I have added a second blog site, called SPORTSPHILLY, A SPORTS ONLINE NEWSJOURNAL.
This site, located at http://sportsphilly1204.blogspot.com/, will be much more video, graphics and photo intensive, and less textual than the current set of sports posts that I’ve been posting to this blog, along with easier linkouts to other sports websites and newsites.
I very much hope you like it and stop in to read it.
this weeks posts focus on the return of allen iverson to the sixers and the return of placido polanco to the phillies. each of them are back to their old teams after a three year absence. Each of them played well while they were gone. Neither of them should ever have left.
welcome back kotter, and welcome back ai and placido polanco.
–art kyriazis, philly.
PLACIDO POLANCO IS THE MAN!!!!!
Pedro Feliz’ option for 2010 apparently will not be renewed by the Phillies General Manager, despite a small cost of just five million dollars. Feliz is one of the best third base glove men in major league baseball, and his glove will be difficult, if not impossible to replace.
Recent word is that Eric Bruntlett, the Phils’ utility infielder of the past two years, is also gone. With Eric Bruntlett, the utility man who spelled Jimmy Rollins each of the last two years and pulled off an unassisted triple play this past year, now cut from the Phils’ forty man roster for 2010, two vital players and key infielders from the 2008-09 World Series championship team are now gone.
For it was in the decisive game five of the 2008 World Series Championship, with Eric Bruntlett on base, that Pedro Feliz delivered the winning hit, and Eric Bruntlett scored the winning run, in the Phils’ thrilling and history making game five win over the Rays, that won the series for the Phils and brought the Championship home to Philadelphia after 28 years.
The same game five that was played over two different days due to Commissioner Selig suspending the game for rain after allowing the Rays to tie the game in the top of the fifth against Cole Hamels, and then shutting the game, and Hamels, down, for two long days.
And now, with one fell swoop, the two guys who manufactured the winning run of the 2008 World Series are gone.
All Phillies fans everywhere should mourn the departure of Pedro Feliz & Eric Bruntlett, for they were the unsung heroes, glove men, role players, pinch runners, bench guys, guys hitting seventh, who did their job, scored a run against superior relief pitching, and got the winning run home in the final game of a World Series, when all of the Phillies superstars couldn’t.
To paraphrase an old pop singer, and perhaps the ancient Greeks at Olympia, they were Heroes, if just for one day.
And to further paraphrase the late, legendary Freddy “the Fog” Shero, Flyers Coach, legend, the coach of the 1974-75 Stanley Cup Flyers, when he spoke to Bobby Clarke, Dave Schultz, Andre DuPont, Bill Kelly and the rest of his ragtag, bluecollar, hard working Broad Street Bullies before Game Six of the 1974 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the heavily favored Bobby Orr-Phil Esposito Boston Bruins, if we win today, we will walk the ice together forever as champions. Champions, forever.
And then the Flyers walked out on the ice and beat those Bruins 1-0 becoming the first expansion franchise in NHL history to win the Stanley Cup. And they still walk the ice together forever as champions…champions forever…
That’s what Bruntlett and Feliz will always be…champions forever…
As we’ll discuss in the body of this post, Feliz is a superior glove man, and Bruntlett, for all his flaws, is an above-average glove man with speed, versatility and the ability pinch-hit and play all of the infield and corner outfield positions. Both will be difficult to replace with better ballplayers, and likely will be replaced by inferior ballplayers.
Here are the main reasons cutting Pedro Feliz (and Eric Bruntlett) is a mistake by the Phillies.
1) Pedro Feliz is widely considered to be among to top five or ten defensive third basemen in baseball, and certainly among the best three-five in the National League.
2) The Phillies, with Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, J.A.Happ, and possibly Jamie Moyer, going in the rotation, plan on having at least three and possibly four left-handed starters in their rotation. Pitching more left-handed starters means facing right-handed batters, which means getting more ground balls hit to the left side of the infield, particularly to the third baseman.
3) The Phillies need a good defensive third baseman to advance in the playoffs and get to the World Series each year.
4) As a strategy, keeping your gold glove shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) but sacrificing your outstanding glove man at third base when you have a predominantly left-handed pitching staff makes no sense.
5) It makes no sense because having a gold glove shortstop and an outstanding second baseman, with a bad third baseman, will lead to many more hits, many more errors and many fewer double plays, and thus many more runs allowed, especially with left-handed starters facing right-handed batters.
6) The Phillies have always played best when they have had a good glove man at third base, whether it was David Bell or Pedro Feliz. They have always had problems when they have tried to sacrifice defense at third base in favor of offense. This problem will be aggravated by having a left-handed pitching staff.
7) Eric Bruntlett was a good player off the bench defensively and as a pinch runner, and especially because he could play shortstop and third, key to a team with three-four left-handed starters. Also he could pinch-hit and substitute in late innings, and played well in the post-season and in key situations.
8) The alternatives to Pedro Feliz are inferior defensively and offensively, with two key exceptions, Adrian Beltre, who is much better defensively and offensively (he’s an explosive home run hitter), and Chone Figgins, who is slightly worse defensively but can field the position, but an upgrade offensively because he can get on base and score runs.
9) The alternatives to Pedro Feliz will cost more money.
10) The alternatives to Pedro Feliz may upset the clubhouse chemistry that has brought the Phils three straight NL East Division titles.
OK, let’s examine each of these points in detail. Also, I’ll consider why cutting Eric Bruntlett is a mistake as well.
First, Pedro Feliz is widely considered to be among to top five or ten defensive third basemen in baseball, and certainly among the best three-five in the National League.
This is established by a wide variety of criteria. Sources include Bill James Handbook for 2009, baseball-reference.com and Dave Pinto’s excellent baseball website, baseball-musings.com, which rates all the fielders at each position.
According to the 2009 Bill James Handbook, the Fielding Bible Awards rate Pedro Feliz the 8th best defensive third baseman in all of baseball. Those ratings are as follows;
1) Adrian Beltre (Seattle). Power, speed, defense, the whole package. Came up with Dodgers. Best third baseman available of free agents. Playoffs, NL West titles. Hit 48 homers in 2004, has more than 250 homers thru 12 seasons, but still only 31. Averaging 25 homers/year in Seattle (difficult homer run park), also can still steal bases. A plus.
2) Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay). AL East Div Title, 2008, 2008 World Series, best third baseman in AL. Perennial MVP candidate, young.
3) Scott Rolen (Cincinnati, helped win 2006 World Series for Cards, division titles, another World Series appearance, Rookie of Year 1997 for Phillies). Hall of Fame stats through age 30, injuries since then.
4) Jack Hannahan (Seattle, came up with Oakland). Bats left, throws right. Already 30.
5) Joe Crede (White Sox, helped win 2005 World Series for Chisox).
6) David Wright (Mets, helped win NL East Division title in 2006 for Mets, playoffs). Best third baseman in NL. Perennial MVP candidate, young, five tool player. Hall of Fame stats through age 27.
7) Mike Lowell (Red Sox, came up with Marlins, has won 2003 World Series with Marlins, 2007 World Series with Red Sox). Big Hitter.
8) Pedro Feliz (three NL East titles for Phils, World Champions 2008, NL Pennant 2009, second World Series appearance)
9) Ryan Zimmerman (Nationals) (2009 NL Gold Glove). Big Hitter.
10) Alex Rodriguez (Yankees) (Division titles, playoffs, 2009 World Series, Yanks) Bound for both Hall of Fame and Hall of Shame.
Ok, that’s the top ten. Now the next ten in order:
11) Troy Glaus (cards, came up with Angels) (2002 World Championship, Angels, many division titles & playoffs).
12) Kevin Kouzmanoff (padres) (division titles & playoffs). Solid.
13) Chipper Jones (braves, probably going to hall of fame) legendary, world series champion 1995, world series 1995, 1996 & eleven consecutive NL East Division titles, .288/.411/.459 line in postseason play)
14) Casey Blake (dodgers, came up with Indians) helped Dodgers win NL West titles at hot corner. 2007 AL Central with Indians, very nearly AL Pennant with Indians. Big Hitter, can field. Twenty homer guy.
15) Blake DeWitt
16) Edwin Encarnarcion
17) Chone Figgins (Angels) Al West Titles, playoffs. Mainly speed.
18) Melvin Mora (Orioles). Good hitter.
19) Aramis Ramirez (Cubs, came up with Pirates) AL Central titles, playoffs, nearly NL pennant except for a certain fan, huge hitter.
20) Bill Hall (Seattle, came up with Brewers) NL Central Title, playoffs, big hitter. Now seems be playing outfield.
Cf the 2009 Bill James Handbook, at p. 18. (Baseball Info Solutions 2008).
It’s pretty obvious the number of World Championships, Division Titles and Playoff teams that are concentrated in this list, especially the higher you go up the list.
The top ten defensive third basemans’ teams have collectively won each of the last five World Series (2005-2009). The next ten have won a lot too, but except for Glaus & Jones, no world championships.
There are no coincidences in baseball. Defensive excellent at third base results in championships.
Of the third basemen on this list, only Rolen, Wright, Feliz and Zimmerman play in the National League. Right now, given Rolen’s age and injury conditions, it’s fair to say that the best defensive third basemen in the NL are, in order;
1) David Wright, Mets
2) Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
3) Pedro Feliz, Phillies
4) Scott Rolen, Reds
5) Troy Glaus, Cards
I’m going to reverse myself later and say that Wright should be ranked third after Zimmerman and Feliz later on, but see further down.
The best defensive third basemen in the AL are, in order;
1) Adrian Beltre, Mariners
2) Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay
3) Jack Hannahan, Oakland
4) Mike Lowell, Red Sox
5) Alex Rodriguez, Yankees
Some other metrics to consider. On the plus/minus system, from 2006-2008, Chase Utley at +85 was more than thirty points higher than the next rated defensive second basemen, Mark Ellis; Jimmy Rollins (the gold glove winner in the NL 2007-2009) at +42 was second rated only to Adam Everett); and Pedro Feliz at +55 was second rated only to Adrian Beltre at +63.
According to the plus/minus system, therefore, the Phillies had the best infield in baseball, defensively with Rollins, Utley and Feliz.
People complain about Ryan Howard’s defense at first base, but the fact is that even a fantastic defensive first baseman can only save you or cost you about ten runs a year at first base. It’s short, second and third where all the big run savings come in. A good defensive third baseman can save a baseball team a substantial number of runs every year.
A final point is that Pedro Feliz clearly outplayed Alex Rodriguez defensively in the World Series of 2009. Feliz got to more balls, had a better range, showed a better throwing arm, committed no routine errors (except for the double stolen base play, which was a weird play really) and turned a number of difficult ground balls into outs and double plays, whereas Rodriguez failed to get to routine grounders and made errors on routine grounders.
Feliz was clearly the better defensive third baseman in the series when the two played head to head, and he has played well in the postseason defensively two years running in 2008-2009. He also played well in the NLDS in 2007, and well for the Giants in their 2002 series run.
Second, the Phillies, with three and possibly four left-handed starters in their rotation, will have many more ground balls going to the left side of their infield than average.
Bill James and other baseball stat heads have analyzed this phenomenon extensively, but it’s simple really. With more lefties pitching, the lineups they face, due to platoon considerations, will be stacked with more right-handed bats.
Right-handed hitters tend to ground to the left side much more often than to the right side because they try to pull the ball. Many more balls will get hit to the third baseman and shortstop than to the second baseman and first baseman under those circumstances.
Consequently, with a predominantly left-handed staff, it’s vital for the Phillies to have not just a good, but an excellent glove man at third base. The Phillies can expect to see a good many more than the average number of balls hit at or around third base, and they will need a third baseman who can not only get to the ball but also make the routine play, turn the double play and make the throw across—all things that Pedro Feliz did very, very well during his tenure with the Phillies.
Third, in order for the Phillies to advance in the postseason each year, it’s vital for them to have an outstanding defensive third baseman playing the hot corner, especially with so many lefties like Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and JA Happ pitching.
Anyone watching Cliff Lee pitch could see this intuitively–a lot of balls were pulled to third base and down the third base side with Lee pitching. A good third baseman makes those into outs.
In the playoffs, they say that leather, lumber and pitching win, and that was very clear for the Phillies in both 2008 and 2009.
The key to their winning the World Series in 2008 and getting back to the World Series and winning the NL pennant in 2009 and beating tough Rockies and Dodgers teams was definitely pitching and defense.
Cliff Lee, Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton would not have been nearly as effective without the defense behind them of Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley in the infield, turning ground balls into outs and double plays, and the outfield defense of Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth and the contributions of Raul Ibanez.
Note that David Bell and Pedro Feliz played third base for the 2002 San Francisco Giants, which got all the way to the World Series by beating the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Giants, two pretty good teams, and won an NL West Division title.
Both Bell & Feliz played in the post-season, and both were excellent defensively and offensively for the Giants, and key players holding down the hot corner. No one could say that Rich Aurilia or Jeff Kent were great defensive players even though they were excellent hitters.
Contrast the 2008-09 Phillies with 2007, when the Phils tried to platoon Wes Helms and Greg Dobbs at third base, both poor glove men. The results in the playoffs were not too good, and the Phillies GM immediately recognized that the Phils needed to upgrade defensively at 3B, so they went out and got Pedro Feliz from the Giants.
Feliz’ extensive post-season experience came in handy in the 2009 World Series, as he seemed to come to life, batting .333 with an OPS of .705, and knocked in the winning run in Game 5 that won the Series for the Phillies. You’d have to think it was as if he’d been there before, lost, and didn’t want to lose again, because he knew exactly how bitter it felt. Based on his losing in 2002, that’s probably exactly why he did so well in the 2008 World Series for the Phillies. Post-season experience does count.
Fourth, as a strategy, keeping your gold glove shortstop (Jimmy Rollins) but sacrificing your outstanding glove man at third base when you have a predominantly left-handed pitching staff makes no sense. The Phils don’t need to add offense to their lineup—they scored plenty of runs and led the league in home runs.
Where the Phils need improvement is on the pitching side of the ledger—at the start of the season, they were near the bottom of the league in ERA, and during the first half they were allowing almost as many runs as they were scoring.
What the Phils need is more defense and pitching, not more offense. What they need are more guys like Feliz, who can field but not hit.
What helped the Phils last year was adding Cliff Lee and Pedro Martinez, who both helped a depleted starting staff.
With a left-handed starting staff, the last thing the Phils need to do is open up a defensive hole at third base for errors, missed throws, botched plays and missed double plays that will lead to long innings. Innings are long enough at Citizens Bank Park—quality defensive play is at a premium there.
What good will it do to have a gold glove shortstop if he’s paired with an average or poor defensive third baseman? None at all, really, if all your pitchers are left handed and all the balls are being pulled down the line to third base rather than up the middle to short or second.
It just doesn’t make sense to have three or four left-handed starters and then not have the best glove man available to play third base. Feliz was already here.
Even if they weren’t happy with Feliz’ offense, they surely could have platooned him with another player on off days, day games and on days right-handed pitchers were pitching, and kept him on the roster. And if Greg Dobbs wasn’t doing the job, surely there were other left-handed utility third baseman around to do the job. Or they could have signed Mark DeRosa to play along with Pedro Feliz—put in DeRosa for offense, Feliz for defense, and so forth.
But cutting Feliz loose made no sense at all.
Sixth, the Phillies have always played best when they have had a good glove man at third base, whether it was David Bell or Pedro Feliz. They have always had problems when they have tried to sacrifice defense at third base in favor of offense. This problem will be aggravated by having a left-handed pitching staff.
This is something one would term the “mike schmidt-scott rolen problem.”
The Phillies have been fortunate to have seen play here the greatest third baseman of all time, Michael Jack Schmidt, who was the greatest hitting third baseman of all time, and also the greatest defensive third baseman of all time, a man who created 125 plus runs a year and also saved another 50 runs a year defensively with his spectacular plays at third base.
If you normalize Schmidt’s 550 home run career to 1990s-2000 baseball, you’ll see that he would easily have hit many more than 650 home runs in his career, and hit for a far higher batting average and on base average, if he had played five run a game baseball under modern conditions, and would have made Alex Rodriguez look like an amateur.
Then, later the Phillies had Scott Rolen come up from the farm system, a third baseman who played here until his arbitration years were up, but really his best years, from the mid 1990s until around 2001 or so, and Rolen was good for around 30 homers a year, 35 doubles and a slew of great defensive plays, a 30 win share a year player. His glove work was excellent and the Phillies fans became spoiled.
Between Schmidt and Rolen we had guys like Charlie Hayes, who could pick it, and Dave Hollins, who couldn’t, and Kim Batiste, a defensive replacement who famously made an error in the 1993 NLCS but then made the game winning hit to beat Atlanta.
The Phillies did trade for Placido Polanco when they traded Rolen, and Polanco could have played third—he’s a gold glove second baseman even now with Detroit—but the Phils decided to trade him when they acquired David Bell to play third and Chase Utley came up.
Bell was a good defensive third baseman—his dad Buddy Bell was also a good glove man, and his grandfather Gus Bell a legendary slugger for the Reds. David Bell could do both—he could field and he could hit the home run. The Phillies with David Bell at third base were effective and he helped solidify their pitching corps for a period of time and made their pitchers look better.
Seventh, Eric Bruntlett was a good player off the bench defensively and as a pinch runner, and especially because he could play shortstop and third, key to a team with three-four left-handed starters. Also he could pinch-hit and substitute in late innings, and played well in the post-season and in key situations.
Let’s examine Eric Bruntlett’s defensive stats. All of these stats are from the Bill James Handbook 2009, but anyone is welcome to update them from baseball-reference.com or from former Sports Center stat guy and former Baseball Info Solutions stat guy (and my friend) Dave Pinto’s excellent fielding stats he keeps on his excellent baseball blog baseballmusings.com.
At first base, Eric Bruntlett had a perfect fielding percentage. He’s an excellent choice to replace Ryan Howard defensively in late innings.
At second base, Bruntlett had a fielding range factor of 4.18 and a fielding percentage of .929 in just five games. This would place him at the lower end of all second baseman. Second base is not Bruntlett’s best position. He’s not a good choice to replace Chase Utley in late innings or to rest Chase Utley on days off because he actually does not appear to play second base all that well. The Phillies actually need another player, a backup second baseman, to rest chase Utley during the season.
At shortstop, Bruntlett had a fielding range factor of 4.22 and a fielding percentage of .970 in nearly 280 innings of play in 2008.
Bruntlett’s fielding range is better than 40% of all regular shortstops playing in major league baseball, and his fielding percentage is certainly good enough to play shortstop at the major league level.
Bruntlett is a very good substitute shortstop, at least defensively. He doesn’t have the Rollins gold glove range factor of 4.52 or Rollins’ fielding accuracy of .988, but Bruntlett averaged 2.63 assists per game and one double play per two games. This compares with Rollins 3 assists per game and slightly higher double play rate of .53 double plays per game, or 1.06 double plays per two games.
In sum, Bruntlett is a very decent, league average or better replacement defensive shortstop.
At third base, Bruntlett had a fielding range factor of 2.86 and a fielding percentage of .955 in 132 innings played at third base in 2008. He averaged 1.78 assists per nine innings, and .14 double plays per nine innings, or roughly one double play each seven full nine inning games he would have played at third base.
In terms of range factor, 2.86 would have placed Bruntlett among the top six third basemen defensively in all of baseball—only Carlos Guillen, Blake DeWitt and Ryan Zimmerman had higher range factors, and Melvin Mora and Mike Lowell also had 2.86 range factors.
In terms of fielding percentage, Bruntlett made 2 errors in 132 innings played, which works out to approximately 19 errors for a season, if he had played 140 nine inning games at third base. David Wright made 21 errors in 159 games, and fielded .962, which is pretty comparable to what Bruntlett did, and Wright is considered a gold glove candidate every year. Chipper Jones fielded .958 and made 21 errors in just 115 games. There were several starting NL third baseman with more errors per nine innings and lower fielding percentages than Bruntlett’s.
In terms of assists, it’s the same story. Bruntlett is solid.
In terms of double plays, Adrian Beltre was probably the best in all of baseball, turning over 27 double plays in just over 1200 innings—working out to .20 double plays per nine innings—or roughly one double play per five full nine inning games. But he’s the best in baseball defensively at third.
Let’s look at someone who’s good, but not great defensively. Aramis Ramirez turned 17 double plays in close to 1300 innings, so his double play rate is closer to .11, or just one double play per 19 full nine inning games played.
So we see, right away, that Eric Bruntlett, if he were a full-time third baseman, would rank among the better third baseman in the National League defensively, as far as turning the double play.
For a full and comprehensive comp defensively, let’s look at David Wright of the NY Mets. Appraising defensive ability is like appraising houses; each one is unique and has its own intrinsic value, but you can approach a value by comparing similar and comparable players and houses.
Wright has a defensive range factor of 2.51, a fielding percentage of .962, makes 1.80 assists per nine innings of play, and turns over .13 double plays per nine innings played. Those numbers are virtually the same as, or not very much different than, Eric Bruntlett.
Moreover, Wright is a fair comparison, since the Mets, like the Phillies, with Santana and Perez in their rotation, have at least two left-handed starters, which means that Wright faces about the same number of ground balls as the Phillies’ third basemen would be expected to face.
Compare this to Pedro Feliz, who had a fielding range factor of 2.72, a fielding percentage of .974, made 2.05 assists per nine innings of play, and turned over .175 double plays per nine innings played. That’s 1.05 double plays per six nine inning games.
Well, it sure looks like Pedro Feliz is a lot more like Adrian Beltre defensively than like David Wright defensively.
The numbers tell the story—which is why Pedro Feliz is actually, after you look at the numbers carefully, not the third best third baseman in the National League, but the second best third baseman in the National League, immediately after 2009 NL Gold Glove winner Ryan Zimmerman.
Obviously, Eric Bruntlett may look like a bad fielder if he goes in and subs for guys who can field as well as Pedro Feliz, Jimmy Rollins or Chase Utley.
The basic point, the take away message of this analysis is, Eric Bruntlett is good enough defensively to play third base as a starter on many major league teams. In the American League, where you have a DH, and may need defense at third base instead of a hitter, he’d be a great addition to many teams needing help at the hot corner.
In the national league, where you need defensive help or a guy to rest your shortstop or third baseman, he’s the perfect bench guy.
This brings us to the last part of why it’s a mistake to let Eric Bruntlett go.
Chase Utley will turn 31 in December of this year, and Jimmy Rollins will turn 31 in November of this year in about ten days’ time. Both of them are reaching that point where they need to rest during the season. Pedro Feliz will turn 35 next year, and if the Phillies had re-signed him, he also would have needed a caddy.
Managing a team that plays in the post-season every year is different than managing a team that never makes it in. You’ve got to manage for a possible 181 game season. In 2008, even going through the playoffs and World Series in three, five and five games, the Phillies played 175 games. In 2009, the Phillies played four, five and six games in the playoffs and World Series, adding an additional fifteen games and five weeks to their schedule, playing 177 games in all.
That’s not the National League anymore—those are schedules like the old 1920s-1950s Pacific Coast League, which would play from March until November every year, a 180 game schedule or something like that.
With that kind of long schedule, you need infield replacement help, you can’t play every infielder every inning of every game.
In addition to which, Bruntlett also played the outfield, playing leftfield with a reasonable range factor and error rate. Bruntlett also pinch-ran frequently during his time with the Phillies, and served as a right-handed pinch-hitter, although defensive replacement was his forte. Bruntlett did get hits on occasion, but his career .240/.315/.344 line suggests that he’s just not that good a hitter, though he did punch nine doubles and two homers for the Phils in 2008 and occasionally hit one hard for them in 2009.
Bruntlett will turn 32 next march of 2010 and is still a useful, veteran utility player who would not have cost very much to keep around. It’s very likely a mistake for the Phillies to let him go.
If we remember the way he came in to pinch run in Game Five of the 2008 World Series, and came home to score the eventual winning run on Pedro Feliz’ winning hit, that Eric Bruntlett, of all people, was the hero to score the winning run of the 2008 World Series, we will remember that he was hero for the Phillies during his tenure here.
Sometimes it’s bad luck to cut your role guys. The Yankees let Aaron Boone go after 2003, even though he was the hero of the 2003 ALCS, the guy who hit the walk off homer against the Red Sox to save their 2003 AL pennant, and signed some guy named A-Rod instead. They didn’t get back to the World Series for six years.
Sometime character is more important than talent. Ray Boone, his son Bob Boone, and Bob Boone’s three sons have all been winners in their baseball careers.
Bob Boone was an integral part of three NL East Division winning teams, a playoff team, and a World Series champion here in Philadelphia from 1973-1981.
After the Phillies let Bob Boone go, they only won one more NL East Division title, got back to the World Series, but lost to the Orioles in five games, and Steve Carlton and the rest of the pitching staff was never the same again, even if Carlton had a good year in 82’ and John Denny won the Cy Young in 1983.
Carlton was not as effective in 1983. Boone was a huge reason why rookies like Bob Walk and Dickie Noles had such good seasons in 1980, and why the Phillies won the World Series despite having such a young pitching staff. Not to mention his outplaying Darrell Porter in the Series hands down.
Boone continued to be a great catcher for many more years. When he went to the California Angels, he helped them win two AL East Division titles in 1982-86, and very nearly AL Pennants in both those years, going to the limit of the ALCS before falling to the Brewers in five in 82’ and to the Red Sox in 86 (Donnie Moore famously blowing the saves in two games).
Ray Boone, Bob’s Dad, was a great player for the Tigers and other clubs, and an excellent third baseman.
Bret Boone, as we all know, was a key player on the Mariners’ club that won a league record 116 games in 2001.
Aaron Boone we already spoke about. He is a hero forever in Yankees’ lore.
Character guys like these are hard to come by.
Eighth, the alternatives to Pedro Feliz are inferior both offensive and defensively, with two important exceptions, which are Adrian Beltre & Chone Figgins. Polanco is not really a third baseman, but we’ll consider whether he could come here as a bench player to take over Bruntlett’s job.
The Phillies are considering these alternatives;
1) Chone Figgins
2) Mark DeRosa
3) Placido Polanco
4) Adrian Beltre
All of these are inferior defensively at third base, EXCEPT FOR ADRIAN BELTRE, WHO WOULD BE A BIG STEP UP BOTH OFFENSIVELY AND DEFENSIVELY.
First, let’s talk about how great Adrian Beltre is.
Defensively, he’s the best third baseman in baseball, hands down. His stats are incredible. He has the best fielding range, the best assists, double play rates and best error rates of any third baseman in baseball, and he leads the plus/minus charts in the Bill James Handbook for individual seasons as well as for successive seasons among all third baseman by large margins.
Among all experts who voted the Fielding Bible Awards in the 2009 Bill James Handbook, Adrian Beltre was the consensus #1 pick among all who voted, except for Mike Murphy, who is wrong, and the Tango Fan Poll, who voted him #2 after Scott Rolen. Bill James, Dan Casey, Hal Richman, Joe Posnanski, John Dewan, Mat Olkin, Rob Neyer all rate Adrian Beltre the #1 defensive third baseman in all of baseball, along with the BIS Video Scouts.
Adrian Beltre won the AL Gold Glove at third base in 2007 and 2008. Pedro Feliz has never won a Gold Glove in the National League, although he is widely considered to be among the best third basemen defensively in the National League. If Beltre comes over to the NL, he immediately becomes an instant candidate for the NL Gold Glove award at third base.
The same guys basically rate Pedro Feliz between 4, 5, 7 and 8, and he finished 7th in the same poll that Adrian Beltre clearly finished first in by a very, very wide margin.
We already discussed Beltre’s numbers above in the discussion on Bruntlett.
Now let’s talk about offense with Adrian Beltre.
Here’s Pedro Feliz career line: .254 BA/.293 OBA/.422 SA.
Here’s Adrian Beltre’s career line: .270 BA/.325 OBA/.453 SA.
These guys are not on the same planet offensively.
Beltre helped lead the Dodgers to the playoffs in 2004. Where they lost to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Beltre went 4 for 15 with a run scored and an RBI, so his line wasn’t all that impressive. But he got the Dodgers in. Even though Seattle has not made it to the playoffs lately, the Mariners have had seasons in which they won 88 games in 2007 and 85 games in 2009, and Beltre was a key part of both clubs. Also, Seattle has a pitching staff with many lefthanders, so Beltre is used to playing with lefties and seeing a lot of balls come his way. The view here has to be that Beltre is a winner.
Feliz’ post-season numbers dropped off in 2009, but he had a phenomenal World Series in 2008, batting .333 with an OPS of .702 and driving in the game winning run in game 5 of what was clearly a pitching-dominated series. Feliz was the key to winning the World Series in 2008, and his phenomenal glove play clearly was better than Alex Rodriguez at third base in the 2009 World Series, and helped Cliff Lee win two tough ballgames to keep the Phillies in it for six games until the Yankees pushed through in Game Six in Yankee Stadium. Feliz’ defense and offense helped the Phillies obtain a 3-0 lead in Game Three and also helped them obtain a 4-4 tie in Game 4; clearly because of Feliz, the Phils had opportunities to win key games in the 2009 Series and win the Series outright. He kept things winnable at all times.
Also, Feliz has played in three prior post-season series with the Giants including their 2002 World Series run where they fell short against the Angels, so he has actually played in four NLDS and three NLCS and three World Series, as well as in the 2008 and 2009. That’s a lot of post-season experience.
Adrian Beltre has a silver slugger award for his 48 homer year at third base with the Dodger in 2004. He also finished 2d in the MVP voting that year, and was an all-star. He also led the entire National League in home runs that year, something that almost no Los Angeles Dodger has ever done due to the nature of their home park and its horribly negative effect on home run hitting.
Beltre has a career OPS of .778, while Feliz has a career OPS of .715.
Beltre for his career averages 89 runs created per game. His career slugging average is better than league slugging average, and his career OPS is better that league OPS average. In short, Beltre is more productive, offensively than the average major league player, and creates a lot of runs.
Feliz by contrast averages 62 runs created per game. Feliz’ career slugging average is lower than league slugging average, and his career OPS is lower than league OPS average. In short, Feliz less productive offensively than the average major league player, and does not create as many runs over the course of a season as Beltre.
In fact, Feliz will on average produce only 70% as many runs as Beltre, while Beltre will produce 143% more runs than Feliz on average.
That’s a pretty wide offensive gap.
1) Adrian Beltre will create between 27 more runs per year, on average, than did Pedro Feliz. Beltre can be expected to average around 89 runs created for the Phillies.
Some comparable numbers for other Phillies; Chase Utley usually creates around 110-115 runs; Ryan Howard usually creates around 120 runs; Jimmy Rollins usually creates 100-110 runs a year, and created 124 runs in his MVP year of 2007.
Having Adrian Beltre at third base creating 89 runs a year will create an offensive all-star infield for the Phillies overnight.
2) Adrian Beltre will SAVE the Phillies many runs at third base over Pedro Feliz. He’s a better defensive player than Feliz in nearly every way—better glove, better arm, better range, better at turning the double play, more accurate arm, etc.
Adrian Beltre, in fact, can be expected to win the NL Gold Glove if he arrives in Philadelphia to play third base. That means saving another 10-50 runs per year defensively.
3) Adrian Beltre is a much faster player and better base runner than Pedro Feliz. He has stolen 98 bases in his career, caught 36 times for a stolen base percentage of 73%, and he runs the bases very well, meaning that he gets from first to third, from second to home and so forth, much better than Feliz does, which again means more scoring.
4) Adrian Beltre, despite having twelve years big league experience, will only turn 31 years old in April of 2010. He is substantially younger than Feliz and has far more career upside.
5) Beltre had an off year hitting only 9 homers in 2009, but first, that was only in 110 games (it’s around 13 for a season) and second, he’s hit 103 homers in five years in Seattle. In three of those years he’s hit 25 or more homers, and he’s averaged better than 20 homers a season. Seattle’s a tough home run park and we’ll get to that below. Third, he was injured last season, and fourth, Seattle has acquired Hanrahan from the A’s and Hall from the Brewers, so they are looking at other options at third.
6) Adrian Beltre’s power numbers are truly impressive when you take park considerations into account. He can be expected to hit far, far more home runs playing at Citizens Bank Park than he hit at either Seattle or LA.
a. From 1998-2004, playing as an LA Dodger, he hit 137 home runs in seven season, an average of nearly twenty home runs a year, with a career high of 48 homers in 2004. Of course, this was playing in Dodger Stadium, one of the WORST home run parks in the majors.
Did this affect Adrian Beltre’s home run totals from 1998-2004? Of course it did.
Of those 137 home runs Beltre hit as a Dodger, only 65 came at Dodger Stadium; 72 came on the road.
Some of the splits are pretty radical; in 1999, Beltre hit 6 homers at home, 9 on the road; in 2000, Beltre hit 7 homers at home, 13 on the road, in 2001, Beltre hit 4 homers at home, 9 on the road, in 2002 Beltre hit 7 homers at home, 14 on the road. Even in his career year of 2004, Beltre hit 23 homers at home and 25 on the road.
b. From 2005-2009, Beltre has hit 203 homers at Seattle, averaging more than 20 homers a year.
But Seattle is, if anything, even a worse home park to hit home runs in than Dodger Stadium. Home runs are depressed by a factor of .90 relative to normal in Seattle’s home stadium, which means that only 90% of league normal amount of home runs can expect be hit at Seattle’s home park.
Some of Beltre’s home/away splits illustrate this. In 2005, Beltre hit 7 homers at home and 12 on the road; in 2007 11 at home and 15 on the road; and in 2008 10 at home and 15 on the road.
c. Career, Beltre has 250 home runs through age 30—but he’s been badly hurt by his home parks. Of those 250 home runs, 137 have come on the road—and just 113 at home.
Playing his career in horrible home run parks like Seattle and Dodger Stadium have cost Beltre between 25 and 50 home runs in his career—which means that he should be at around 275-300 career home runs right now.
d. If Beltre were to come to Citizens Bank Park—a home park with a home run factor of 130—it could reasonably be expected that over the course of three years, instead of having a typical Adrian Beltre year of 25 homers, 10 at home and 15 on the road, that we should see an increase of 130/90 in the amount of home runs that Beltre would hit at home at Citizens Bank Park, or approximately 1.44 more homer at home.
Applying that to his usual home run year, it could reasonably be expected that Adrian Beltre would hit 15 homers at home and 15 on the road, for an average total of 30 homers per year, if he was playing in the Bank.
e. Even assuming just the average of twenty homers a year, with 7 at home and 13 on the road as he now hits at Seattle, Beltre would hit an additional three homers a year playing at the Bank at Home, and thus hit 10 at home and 13 on the road, for an average of at least 23 homers a year. But he probably will learn to pull the ball into the short left field porch and do much better than that.
f. Over the course of three years, playing in the Bank, averaging between 23-30 homers a year, and now hitting as many or more homers at home as he does on the road, Beltre will begin to approach 350 career home runs within a three year period.
Over the course of five years, he will very likely approach 400 career home runs. Playing in the Bank, he could eventually finish out his career and become a career 500 home run hitter at this pace.
g. It could also be expected, even at his age and experience level, that Beltre could have a breakout year and hit 40 or more home runs again, with the majority of those at the Bank, because his power is to left field.
In short, Adrian Beltre is the ideal candidate to replace Pedro Feliz at third base. He has the perfect offensive and defensive credentials to fit in with the Phillies, and buried underneath the statistics is the fact that Adrian Beltre is one of the best home run hitters in all of baseball. He’s just waiting for a chance to show the world that he can blast home runs in a park suited to his one greatest talent—the long ball.
And what are the Phillies known for if not the long ball? Based on this analysis, it’s obvious that Adrian Beltre is the guy that the Phillies should be signing to replace Pedro Feliz. He fits in best by far. He knows how to field a left-handed staff, he’s a better glove, and he’s a home run hitting machine whose eyes will light up with delight every time he comes to the Bank. His offensive numbers will swell at home instead of shrinking at home.
Adding Adrian Beltre will immensely strengthen the Phillies at third base. It’s the one answer, the only answer to who can replace Pedro Feliz at third base.
Now let’s talk about the other alternatives, which are inferior offensively and defensively, except for Chone Figgins, who is an acceptable and interesting possibility, except that in order for him to be effective, he’d have to bat leadoff.
1) Mark DeRosa – Everyone should like Mark DeRosa. He quarterbacked Penn to two impresssive Ivy League titles, and he’s a heck of an athlete.
You don’t see too many Penn guys in professional sports (apologies to the great Chuck Bednarik), but DeRosa is an excellent player.
That aside, DeRosa is not an excellent third baseman. He used to be a decent shortstop, but DeRosa will turn 35 next year (yes, 1993 & 1994 were that long ago, Penn football fans) and he doesn’t have the arm to play short anymore, so he’s been playing second base mainly.
Although he’s been playing some third base for the Cards, among others, he’s not a good third baseman defensively.
Offensively, his numbers are no better than Pedro Feliz, and although he’s had some power the last couple of seasons, at age 35, he can’t sustain that for many more seasons.
He did have good seasons with the Cubs in 2008 and with the Cards last year, and with Texas in 2006, but for most of his career he’s been a part-time guy.
DeRosa’s career line is .279BA/.348OBA/.422SA, which is not much different than Feliz, and his career slugging average is below league.
Two points in favor of DeRosa
first, he’s a philly penn guy. that’s good.
second, he’d be a good replacement for eric bruntlett, and he could spell chase utley and ryan howard against tough lefthanded hitters, and also play leftfield for raul ibanez in the same way. as a bench player, who spelled a regular five times a week, he’d be ideal, especially because he hits lefties very well. as a substitute 3d baseman he makes lots of sense. but not a regular 3d baseman on a world series team.
Signing him in combination with Adrian Beltre or Chone Figgins makes a lot of sense; signing DeRosa to play 3d base all the time makes no sense.
2) Chone Figgins – An acceptable alternative to Feliz…an interesting player with unique and strange skills set…
a. First of all, not a good defensive player, inferior to Feliz. As we saw above, Feliz is the #7 defensive player while Figgins is ranked #17 among all major league third basemen.
b. However, these differences may not be as great as we think. Feliz has a defensive range of 2.72, Figgins is 2.65; Feliz defensive percentage is .974 with 19 errors made in 129 games which is 24 errors per 162 games. Figgins defensive percentage is .978 with 6 errors made in 105 games, which is 9-10 errors per 162 game season.
Feliz makes 2.05 assists per 9 innings; Figgins makes 1.82 assists per 9 innings. Those are pretty close.
However, that total has to be examined carefully, because Figgins only plays behind one left-handed starter, while Feliz plays behind three and four left-handed starters, so obviously Feliz has a lot more chances for assists.
Feliz turns one double play ever six games, as cited above, while Figgins turns one double play approximately every seven games, which again is pretty close, but data skewed by the left-handedness of the Philly staff.
c. In summary, Figgins may not be as inferior defensively as initially assumed, although the consensus is he is inferior.
The statistics suggest that he can field the position and that the Phillies will not lose that many runs with Figgins at third base. He will miss some balls due to his height but he will also get to some balls due to his quickness. He actually may work out at third base to be an acceptable option to Feliz.
d. Second, he will be 32 in January of 2010, so you’re not buying youth here.
This is even worse when you consider that Figgins’ entire game is based on speed. He’s only 5 foot 8 and 180, which is kind of heavy for a guy that’s 5 foot 8 and a ballplayer.
He stole 62 bases in 2004, leading the American League but that number has dropped by around ten every season to where he’s stealing only 30 or 40 a year, with a success rate of around 75%.
Notably, Figgins led the American League in caught stealing last year, with 17 outs made while trying to steal second, while making it successfully 42 times, which means he only made it 71% of the time.
The Phillies as a team make it about 85% of the time.
Basic baseball statistics show that if you get thrown out more than 33% of the time while trying to steal second, you’re actually costing your team runs, so Figgins is so slow at this point that he actually shouldn’t be stealing bases at all.
Figgins also led the American League in caught stealing in 2007 as well.
e. Figgins also had 17 triples in 2004, but now he’s only hitting around 7, and the most doubles he’s ever had in a year is 30, which is shockingly low for a guy with this kind of speed.
It means, basically, that he’s not a line drive hitter or a power alley hitter like Victorino or Rollins; he’s basically not a good hitter at all.
f. Figgins has only 31 home runs in eight professional seasons, an average of barely four a year. His career line is .291BA/.363OBA/.388SA. It’s a weird line.
g. Now here’s where Figgins is good; he is great at getting on base and getting around the bases and scoring.
His statistics at advancing from first to third on singles, from first to home on doubles, from second to home on any kind of hit, and so forth, are stratospherically above league average.
Figgins is a run-scoring machine. For his career, he’s averaged 103 runs scored a game. This is a truly impressive statistic.
The hidden part of speed is advancing the bases, not merely stealing; and since the Phillies have a lot of hitters who can hit behind Figgins and advance him, all Figgins has to do is get on base and let the lumber behind him do the rest.
h. Figgins gets on base a lot. He walks a hundred times a year and has a career on base average of .363. This, along with his great speed and fearlessness on the bases, makes him a prototypical leadoff hitter.
Also, despite his having just a .388 career slugging average, Figgins’ high OBA gives him a career OPS of .751, which is higher than league average and propels him into the area where he gets on base so often, he is both a run creating as well as a run scoring machine.
i. In fact, Figgins, for his career, averages 95 runs created per 162 games played, which is very impressive. That’s a far higher total than either Feliz or Beltre, and Beltre is a truly excellent offensive third baseman.
Figgins creates those runs in an entirely different manner than Beltre, however—Figgins does it by walking, bunting, getting infield hits, running out grounders, beating out errors, etc and getting on base any way he can—and then terrifying opposing pitchers with his speed game, or advancing the bases quickly if the next player makes a hit. Figgins is, in fact, a legitimately great leadoff player.
j. The only question with Figgins is, will making Figgins the leadoff hitter drive Jimmy Rollins crazy? J Ro has been the leadoff hitter for so long, the guy who leads the pack, that he may not like hitting second or whatever behind Figgins.
That may ruin the club chemistry, and club chemistry is a fragile thing. On paper, however, it does look a lot better to have Figgins bat first, and then Rollins second.
Then you can bat Victorino in the six hole or seven hole behind either Werth or Ibanez, and he’s a much stronger hitter. Or, if Rollins is having a slump or an off day, you move Victorino up to second and bat someone else seventh.
It certainly gives the lineup more flexibility.
k. Well, there is one other question, and that is Figgins’ durability. Beltre has played nearly every game of every season, excepting two seasons, last year and one season with the Dodgers, whereas Figgins has missed a lot of games for the Angels with injuries. You need a backup plan b with Figgins, you can’t depend on him for 162 games.
Finally, the Phillies are considering bringing back Placido Polanco. Aside from been there, done that, Polanco is now 34 years old and will turn 35 in October of 2010.
He has never played third base regularly except here in Philadelphia back when Larry Bowa was manager.
Polanco’s career line is .306 BA/.350 OBA/.416 SA, which means he has a career OPS of .766, but the holes in his game are well known.
He hardly ever walks, although he also is very hard to strikeout. He hits a lot of doubles, but hardly ever hits a home run. He has speed, but not much of it.
He won the gold glove in the AL last year, but the fielding bible guys at Bill James Handbook 2009 rate him no better than the sixth best second baseman in baseball, and very far from the top. They rate Brandon Phillips, Mark Ellis, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia and Orlando Hudson all better than him defensively. Two guys even named Robinson Cano as better on their ballots, and it’s true, Cano has some great numbers defensively.
But what really sticks out in my mind is a terrible play Polanco didn’t make in the playoff game against Minnesota this past off-season, a ball hit up the middle that Chase Utley or Jimmy Rollins would have gotten to with ease, but that Polanco just didn’t get to at all. I just don’t see the range there anymore.
The numbers say that Polanco has a better range factor than Chase Utley, but we who are Phillies fans saw both of them play here at the same time, and we all know that Chase Utley is about five times the glove man that Polanco is. That’s why the Phillies traded away Polanco.
Also, Polanco was not as good a third baseman as David Bell—so why would the Phillies bring him back now when they have the option of putting Chone Figgins or Adrian Beltre, both of whom are natural third baseman—and better third baseman—at the position.
One thing you could do with Placido Polanco is use him as a utility player to spell Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. He might not like coming off the bench, but if you think about it, resting Chase Utley or Ryan Howard against tough lefthanders and giving them a day off once or twice a week and starting Polanco in their place makes sense. And then you have Polanco around to spell a Figgins or Beltre at third base.
Maybe Polanco (or DeRosa) is the solution to the Eric Bruntlett problem. He’s been a Phillie before, and the fans did like him. He plays hard, and undoubtedly, having been to the World Series with the Tigers and having lost, he is hungry for a title. And he’s played with these guys before, so he might be willing to accept a part-time role. And he can play first or second base well and hit well enough to make everyone forget about Eric Bruntlett. In fact, if anyone gets hurt, he can play for a month or two because Polanco is a real ballplayer.
So one solution might be to sign both Figgins AND Polanco, and sit back and watch the Phillies roll to another world series. Or Figgins and DeRosa. Or Beltre and DeRosa. Or Beltre and Polanco. Even I’m getting confused now.
What is clear is that DeRosa and Polanco are second baseman who can give howard and utley rest against lefties, while Figgins and Beltre are true third baseman who each bring offense and defense to third base. Figgins is a leadoff get on base speed guy, while Beltre is all power and home runs, with some speed too. Beltre is the best defensive third baseman in baseball. Polanco won the gold glove in the al at 2b last year, he’s a doubles singles hitter while DeRosa is more of a power guy.
Ninth, the alternatives to Pedro Feliz will cost more money. There is no doubt that signing Beltre, or Figgins, or Polanco, or any combination of them, will cost more money than it would have cost to re-sign Feliz and Bruntlett. This is pretty obvious. On the other hand, the Phillies pretty nearly sold out every game last year. They’re swimming in cash. One rabid fan even tried to sell herself, allegedly, to get World Series tickets, although that’s disputed, of course, by her attorneys.
Tenth, the alternatives to Pedro Feliz may upset the clubhouse chemistry that has brought the Phils three straight NL East Division titles. Here’s where the rub, as Shakespeare or Hamlet would say, lies. Beltre or Figgins might be upgrades offensively, defensively or at the leadoff position, but what will they bring to the clubhouse? Is Beltre a winner? Will Figgins move to leadoff upset Jimmy Rollins? Will Polanco be happy as a bench player after starting for the Tigers? Again, clubhouse chemistry is important.
To summarize, the Phillies need to make a decision. The clear-cut decision is to sign Adrian Beltre. He’s clearly better offensively and defensively at third, and he’ll probably hit more homers in the Bank.
The other option is to sign Chone Figgins, and make him your leadoff hitter. That means putting Jimmy Rollins in the two hole, and moving Shane Victorino down to #6 or #7 in the lineup.
If the Phillies sign Figgins, they almost have to sign Polanco or DeRosa or another comparable player to cover for Figgins in case he gets hurt. Also, they need such a player to do what Bruntlett did, and spell Utley, Howard and Rollins, especially spell Howard and Utley against tough lefties and on day games after night games. They need a right-handed guy who can field, hit and has speed. Polanco is perfect for all of these, so Polanco is actually perfect to replace Bruntlett, and he’s the right age and fit for a championship ball club. And he would get a lot of at bats.
The Phillies did something similar in 1993 when they signed Mariano Duncan, a guy who had won the World Series in 1990 with the Reds, and used him to spell Mickey Morandini and John Kruk on the left side of the infield. Duncan turned out to be a brilliant choice as a bench player and role player.
Polanco could be that guy again. He played well for the Phillies in 2003 and 2004, and coming off a gold glove year in Detroit, he could be that guy again in 2009 for a championship level ball club.
So perhaps the Phillies do have alternatives. They will cost some money, but there are always alternatives.
–art kyriazis, philly
Home of the 2008 world champion Phillies
2007, 2008, 2009 NL East Division Champions
2008, 2009 NL Pennant Winners
Jimmy Rollins, three straight gold gloves, 2007-2009
Shane Victorino, two straight gold gloves, 2008-2009
Chase Utley, four straight Silver Slugger Awards, 2b, 2006-2009
1976-1978, 1980, 1983, 1993 NL East Division Champions
1981 NL East Divisional Playoffs.
1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, 1993 NL Pennant Champions
1980 World Champions
THE PHILLIES MAKE A MISTAKE RELEASING BRETT MYERS
November 17, 2009
Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro made a mistake releasing Brett Myers after the 2009 post-season.
Amaro declined to negotiate with Phillies long-time pitcher Brett Myers, severed all ties and decided to let Myers be a free agent.
There are several reasons why this move is wrong.
1) Myers is the longest tenured Phillie on the roster.
2) Myers has three seasons of effective post-season experience.
3) Myers has been an integral part of three NL East Division
winners, and an integral part of three contending teams before that.
4) Myers is still young, not yet 30.
5) Myers has great strikeout to walk ratios and a great career WHIP (walks and hits to innings pitched ratio).
6) Myers is an innings eater whose stats are better than league average.
7) The Phillies have no one better to replace Myers as a starter or reliever, and plenty who may be much worse.
8) Myers would have been cheap to re-sign to a one year deal.
9) Myers wanted to stay a Phillie, and loves being a Phillie, and the Phillies fan love Myers.
10) Myers should have been re-signed because he had the courage to call Cole Hamels out for “quitting” after Game Three of the 2009 World Series. Demonstrating guts, will to win, and willingness to demand the same of his superstar teammates.
Let’s detail those reasons.
First, Myers was the longest tenured Phillie on the roster. He loves the Phillies, loves the Phillies fans, and he knows how to pitch in Citizens Bank Park.
Second, Myers has three seasons of post-season experience. He pitched as a closer/relief pitcher in the 2007 NLDS against the Rockies, started in the NLDS/NLCS/World Series, and served as a relief pitcher in the 2009 World Series. In 2009 he was available either as a starter, long relief or as backup closer in the event Ryan Madsen or Brad Lidge were unavailable to do the job. He’s been there and has handled the pressure before in the post-season, in Philly and other big towns and can be handed the ball in big game postseason situations.
Third, Myers has been an integral part of each of the three NL East Division Title Winning teams, as well as being a key starter on teams in 2003-2006 that each won 85 or more games and were always in the hunt. In 2007, after four seasons in which he racked up 193, 176, 215 and 198 innings pitched, going 14-9, 11-11, 13-8 and 12-7 in those seasons (50 total win against 35 total losses), he was asked in 2007 to go to the bullpen and become a closer.
In 2007, Myers converted 21 saves in 24 save opportunities with an ERA of 4.33 (park adjusted ERA of 3.63), striking out 83 batters in just 68 and two thirds innings, while walking only 27, with just 6 hit batsmen and 2 wild pitches. He gave up nine homers in those innings, which projects out to around 27 over 200 innings, but that’s a) normal for Myers and b) normal for pitching in Citizens Bank Park, which allows more than 130% more home runs than the average home park.
In 2008, asked to be a starter again, Myers logged 190 innings again and faced 817 batters, striking out 163 while walking only 65, with 6 hit batsmen and 29 homers allowed. His ERA was slightly higher, 4.55, with a park-adjusted ERA of 4.47, and his won lost record 10-13, but his record in 2008 was not dissimilar from his starting stats of 2003 or 2004, in which he had very similar numbers and results. In 2004 he gave up more home runs and more hits per innings and had an ERA of 5.52 and an adjusted ERA of 5.17.
In 2009 Myers had injury problems and was limited in his ability to start and relieve, but still was willing to come back, hurt, and throw, time and time again, for the Phillies.
Other pitchers would have stayed on the disabled list.
Myers is a competitor who always wants the ball. He came back to the Phillies hurt in September, helped out the bullpen as well as the starting staff, and was there to back up the bullpen in the playoffs and the World Series.
His 2009 stats are also off his career norms, but Myers was injured. There is no reason why he can’t be 100% again next year and shoulder a starters’ role.
Fourth, Myers is young. Myers was born on August 17, 1980. He turned 29 this year. That means he will turn 30 next year. He is still good for another five years at least. He’s six foot four and weights 238 pounds. The one thing to recommend is that Myers go on a conditioning program to lose some weight—losing about twenty pound off his frame would help his mechanics and endurance tremendously. Also, alcohol rehabilitation—he needs to stop drinking entirely. That would help with his weight. With those two taken care of, Myers can be a terrific pitcher for the next five-ten years.
Fifth, Myers has great strikeout to walk ratios and an outstanding career WHIP. Career, Myers has through 2008, 936 strikeouts logged in 1113 innings pitched, which is around 7 and one half strikeouts per nine innings. Through the same period Myers has just 390 walks, which is just three walks a game, which gives him a more than 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio. He gives up about one hit per inning pitched, exactly, so his career WHIP is 1.36. Combined with 7.5 strikeouts a game, those are outstanding career strikeout, hits allowed and walks allowed ratios.
Sixth, Myers has shown, over and over, that he is an innings eater whose career era, career WHIP and career strikeout to walk ratio are all under league average in a league where teams score five or more runs a game and in a home park where home runs fly out all the time. The Phillies had another pitcher once who was a lot like Brett Myers, who they also brought up in their farm system, a guy named Kevin Gross. Gross was basically a .500 pitcher, but Gross was a big guy, a strikeout pitcher, who would always eat up 200 innings a year, give you five to eight innings a start, and always keep you in the ballgame most of the time. The Phillies made the mistake of letting Gross get away to the Dodgers, and Gross had a long and productive career after leaving the Phillies. Not a Hall of Famer, but as a #3, 4, or 5 starter that ate up innings and helped keep the Dodgers in ballgames and gave them a chance to win.
Nor did the Phillies ever find another starter who was as good as Gross. As Bill James and other statheads are fond of saying, there is nothing as valuable in baseball as an average player, a replacement level player, a guy who gives you the league average ERA and pitches 200 innings a year. Those guys are hard to find.
Seventh, who will replace Myers? Let’s look as some of the back end starters the Phillies have used in recent years who have been much worse than Myers, and a lot more expensive.
Adam Eaton. Once a high Phillies draft pick, let go to other teams, the Phils resigned him to an expensive deal. Not known for “eaton” innings, Eaton went 10-10 in 2007 with a 6.29 ERA (park-adjusted 6.33) while allowing a staggering 192 hits and 30 homers in just 161 and two thirds innings pitched. Also 11 hit batters and 6 wild pitches. He was worse the next year, only logging 107 innings pitched, going 4-8 with a 5.80 ERA (6.07 park adjusted), allowing 131 hits and 15 homers in those 107 innings, while striking out only 57 and walking 44, with 6 hit batsmen and 2 wild pitches. Awful, terrible, horrible don’t begin to describe how bad Adam Eaton was as a starter.
Jamie Moyer has been a wonderful surprise for the Phillies, but he will turn 47 years old in just five days on November 18, 1962. In fact, Moyer will will in fact be attending his 30th reunion at Penn Charter either this fall of 2009 or this coming spring of 2010. Tempus fugit.
Moyer was terrific for the Phillies in 2007 and 2008, but his ERA ballooned in 2009 as did a number of other stats, and he was actually removed from the rotation in favor of Pedro Martinez. Moyer was doing well in relief, but then suffered a serious injury in September, which was unfortunate, because Moyer was very, very effective in the postseason in both 2007 and 2008, and the Phils could have used Moyer’s junkballing stuff against the lefthanded leaning, fastball-hitting Yankees.
Right now, the Phillies Starting Staff for 2010 looks like this:
1) Cliff Lee 2) Cole Hamels 3) Joe Blanton 4) JA Happ 5) ?
There was every reason to insert Brett Myers in there at Number 5. Atlanta has six starters under contract, and guys get hurt during a season.
The Phillies needed to sign Pedro Martinez and trade for Cliff Lee during the season because starting pitchers get hurt and got hurt, or don’t perform as expected. Brett Myers represented insuranced & depth, and was a known commodity.
Pedro Martinez could start for the Phillies, but it’s not really clear that he can go an entire season and log 200 innings like a Brett Myers. It really would have been a lot safer to use Brett Myers to log 200 innings and use Pedro in relief, and then flip them around come playoff time. That way the Phillies could save Pedro’s arm for the post-season, since Myers can do anything you want him to do. Pedro has broken down physically each of the seasons he was with the Mets, and cold weather doesn’t agree with him at age 38.
Kyle Kendrick is a potential #4 or #5 starter for the Phillies, but a careful analysis of his pitching stats show that his successful 2007 season is an illusion. This is because Kyle Kendrick is not a strikeout pitcher and only succeeds when he doesn’t give up hits and doesn’t give up walks. He was successful in 2007 because a large number of the balls put into play against him happened to be caught—what we call the Voros McCracken effect or factor. This in 2007 he allowed 129 hits in 121 innings pitched, and had an ERA of 2.87 (park adjusted 4.23), but struck out only 49 batters, less than 3.5 per 9 innings, a very very low total for a young pitcher, especially one who’s 6 foot three, 190 and was age 23 at the time—he’s turning 26 in 2010—while walking 25—about 1.75 per nine innings. Now that was a 2-1 strikeout to walk ratio, but notice how many balls are being put into play when you don’t strike out very many people. Kendrick allowed 16 homers in those 121 innings.
In 2008, it was a completely different story for Kendrick. He allowed 194 hits in just 155 and two thirds innings, struck out just 68 batters while walking 57—almost a one to one strikeout to walk ratio—LED the national league in hit batsmen with 14—which would have been around 25 hit batters if he’d gone to 200 plus innings—and also added in 4 wild pitches. Kendrick logged a 5.49 ERA (6.05 adjusted) and allowed 23 homers in those 155.2 innings. This works out to a WHIP of over 1.60—and a WHIP over 1.50 is very very high. Kendrick in 2008 walked nearly 3 and a half batters a game, while striking out just about the same number as he had in 2007, 3 and a half batters a game. So his walks doubled while his strikeouts stayed the same. And his wild pitches, homers and hit batsmen went nuts. Add in the poor strikeout to walk ratio, the high walk ratio, the hit batsmen, the homers and the wild pitches, and you can see why Kendrick was sent down to the minors in 2008 and stayed there in 2009.
Kendrick is simply never going to be an effective major league starting pitcher. If he learns a sinker or change, he might eventually become a good one or two inning or long relief pitcher, but never a closer, starter or 7th inning setup guy. Kendrick doesn’t know how to strikeout batters, and unless he can control the location of his pitches to get ground balls and induce double plays, and not allow homers or hits, he’s not going to be able to hold leads either. He’ll just be a guy you throw in there when you’re losing and you need to eat up innings, but since the Phillies are never out of a ballgame, they just don’t need anyone like him.
It could be the Phils expect Pedro to hold down the fort until Kyle Drabek or someone like him is ready off the farm.
Eighth, the Phillies should have resigned Myers because he would have been cheap to resign.
Coming off an injury plagued year, the Phils could have had him for a one year deal, and probably nowhere close to the money they signed him for a while back when they gave him a long term guaranteed deal. Then the Phils could have sat back and seen how he would have done.
Ninth, Myers wanted to stay with the Phils, because he’s a career Phillie and he loves playing in Philly. He loves the fans, and the fans love him. He’s a gutbucket, blue collar, lunchpail, play hurt kind of player who leaves everything on the field, and that’s exactly what Philly fans love about him. He’s nothing like Pat Burrell or Bobby Abreu or Scott Rolen, all of whom had issues at one time or another about playing in Philly for one reason or another, and each of whom loved to take those long paid DL vacations. Myers has always loved Philly, and always played hurt, and always came back as soon as he could.
Myers was like the aaron rowand of the phillies pitching staff.
Tenth, the Phillies should have signed Myers because he called Cole Hamels out for “quitting” during the World Series this past October/November.
Although it’s controversial, Myers should be given credit for saying to the superstar, hey, you’re the superstar, you can’t go around saying stuff like “I wish the season was over, I quit, I’m mentally drained,” because that shows poor leadership to the rest of the team, especially when you’re playing a go for the jugular team like the Yankees, who essentially play a world series every week since they’re in the cut-throat AL East Division.
Myers showed Billy Martin-Phil Rizzuto-Yogi Berra-Derek Jeter in your face kind of leadership and style by getting in Cole Hamels’ face during the World Series.
The Phillies need that kind of locker room intensity.
The Phillies need guys who want to win so badly, they’re not afraid to fight with each other over who’s trying harder to win the World Series.
Hamels is a very, very gifted pitcher, but how good , how great, how invincible would he be if he had Brett Myers intensity, toughness and desire to win?
Brett Myers must say to himself every day, if I had the talent that Cole Hamels had, I’d never lose. I’d go out and beat those other guys. Because I hate to lose. I’m Brett Myers. Give me the ball.
For that reason, and for all the others enumerated herein, it’s probably a mistake to let a fellow like Brett Myers leave the Phillies.
Facing Myers for the Dodgers or Yankees is a lot different than facing nice Randy Wolf, sloppy Vincente Padilla or CC Sabathia, who has developed a psychological issue with the phils. Myers just wants to beat you any way he can.
It might be a mistake to let him go to an enemy team.
–art kyriazis, philly
home of the 2008 world champion phillies
Jimmy Rollins, three straight gold gloves, 2007-2009
Shane Victorino, two straight gold gloves, 2008-2009
Chase Utley, four straight Silver Slugger Awards, 2b, 2006-2009
JA Happ NL Rookie of the Year 2009
2007, 2008, 2009 NL East Division Champions
2008, 2009 NL Pennant Winners
1976-1978, 1980, 1983, 1993 NL East Division Champions
1981 NL East Divisional Playoffs.
1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, 1993 NL Pennant Champions
1980 World Champions
IF I HAD A HAMELS PART II – PHILS SHOULD NOT TRADE HAMELS FOR ROY HALLADAY OR ANYONE ELSE
November 17, 2009
There were some ugly rumors the past week or so to the effect that the Philadelphia Phillies, in the wake of losing the 2009 World Series to the Yankees, might be willing to trade Cole Hamels to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay. Since then, the Phils’ front office has categorically denied they will trade Hamels, which is a good thing, but let’s make sure they don’t by putting out the case for NOT trading Hamels in a logical, sensible fashion.
The Phillies should not trade Hamels for Roy Halladay. Since Hamels and Halladay follow each other alphabetically in the 2009 Bill James Handbook and on Baseball-Reference.com, this one is easy to figure out.
1) Hamels is much younger than Roy Halladay, Halladay is 33, Hamels 26.
2) Hamels has thrown one fourth as many career innings as Halladay.
3) Hamels has a better strikeout to walk ratio than Halladay; Halladay just isn’t a strikeout pitcher.
4) Halladay is wilder than Hamels, hitting more batters and throwing more wild pitches.
5) Hamels is a much, much better hitter than Halladay, important in the NL.
6) Hamels is a proven post-season winner and performer; Halladay has never pitched in the post-season. Moreover, Halladay has never gotten his team into the playoffs, even when paired with AJ Burnett, whereas Hamels got his team the NL East crown with #2 starters like Brett Myers and Kyle Kendrick. Hamels is a better leader.
7) Hamels is very likely to rebound in 2009 and beyond and become a career dominant pitcher like Steve Carlton.
So let’s go into the details behind these reasons:
First, Hamels is far younger than Halladay.
Roy Halladay will be 33 years old in 2010, having been born on May 14, 1977. He is six foot six, weighs 225 throws right and bats right.
Cole Hamels will be 26 in December of 2009, having been born on December 27, 1983, an age advantage of eleven years. He is six foot three weighs 190 throws left and bats left.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE: HAMELS. Hamels has an entire career ahead of him. Halladay could have five years left, or he could be done tomorrow. It’s really hard to say.
Second, Hamels has thrown far fewer innings than Halladay.
Halladay has thrown eleven seasons in the big leagues. From 1998 to 2001, he did not pitch over 150 innings. In 2002 and 2003 he led the league in innings pitched with 239 and 266. In 2004 and 2005 he was limited to 133 and 141 innings pitched. In 2006-2007 he pitched mor than 220 innings and in 2008 again led the league in innings pitched with 246. In 2003 he led the league in wins and won the AL Cy Young Award. Total Innings worked in eleven seasons: Adding in 2009, he’s pitched around 2000 plus innings in the big leagues.
Hamels has thrown four seasons in the big leagues, and only two seasons over two hundred innings. He’s pitched deep into the postseason the past two seasons, which has increased his workload, but adding in 2009 he’s still only pitched around just short of 800 innings in the big leagues. One point is that the pace of Hamels’ workload at this age is far greater that it was at a comparable age for Halladay. If Hamels were to continue this pace, he would throw nearly 3,000 innings by the time he reached Halladay’s age. On the other hand, if he could continue this pace, you’d have a pitcher of Hamel’s quality throwing 2,000 plus career innings for you the next five to ten years.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE: HAMELS.
Third, Hamels has a far, far better Strikeout to Walk ratio than Halladay.
Halladay, career, through 2008, struck out 1287 batters in 1808 innings pitched, while walking 420 batters, which is about 6 strikeouts and two walks per nine innings pitched.
Hamels, career, through 2008, has struck out 518 batters in 543 innings pitched, while waking 144 batters, which roughly works out to 8 strikeouts and three walks per nine innings pitched.
When comparing pitchers, the strikeout pitcher is always to be preferred to the pitcher who keeps the ball in play.
ADVANTAGE: HAMELS.
Fourth, Hamels is not as wild as Halladay.
Halladay, career, through 2008, has hit 51 batsmen and thrown 41 wild pitches in 1808 career innings. That’s a pretty high self-destruction index, to paraphrase one of Bill James’ famous columns.
Hamels, career, through 2008, has hit 7 batsment and thrown 10 wild pitches in 543 career innings. That’s nowhere close to Halladay’s wildness. In fact, for a pitcher of Hamels’ quality, those are impressively low numbers.
Thus, even though Hamels may have a slightly higher walk ratio, the fact is that Hamels doesn’t hit batsmen, and doesn’t throw wild pitches at anywhere close to the rate that Halladay does.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE: HAMELS.
Fifth, Hamels is a better hitter than Halladay.
Halladay has spent his entire career in the AL and has never hit for himself. It would be expected that he cannot hit at all.
Hamels, an exceptional all around athlete born and reared in Southern California who trains very hard, is an excellent hitter for a pitcher, routinely gets singles, rbis and can get the bunt down when called upon in game situations.
In the National League, a pitcher who can hit, over the course of a season, can save you runs and pick up win shares, and therefore games. The difference between a .050 batting average and a .200 batting average over the course of a season is substantial—you’re not giving away as many outs at the number nine hole, especially if your pitching ace logging innings is getting all those at bats.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE: HAMELS.
Sixth, Hamels has proven himself in the postseason.
Roy Halladay has never pitched in the postseason. This is not really his fault, but at the same time he has never led his club to a championship, a division title or a wild card berth despite his pitching prowess. Toronto has had some fine clubs, including some 90 game winning clubs, but the Yankees and Red Sox keep winning many more than ninety games, leaving Toronto unable to get into the AL Playoffs as a wildcard. In 2008, with AJ Burnett and Roy Halladay at the top of their staff, Toronto had an outstanding team that won 86 and lost 73—and yet finished fourth in the AL East division, behind Tampa Bay, who went 97-65, the Red Sox who went 95-67, and the Yankees, who went 89-73. When AJ Burnett went to the Yankees in 2009, the Yankees improved by nearly fifteen games and won 103 games in 2009, walking away with the division, and Burnett turned in a sharp postseason performance for the Yankees, suggesting that perhaps he and not Halladay was the gutsier performer with the will to win.
Hamels, by contrast, has not only pitched three years of playoff baseball, he’s been integral in the Phillies three consecutive NL East Division Championships. Yet that was with #2 pitchers in 2007 and 2008 like Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Kyle Kendrick. The Phillies did not add another truly great starter until mid-2009 when Cliff Lee arrived on the scene. Until Lee arrived, Hamels clearly was the ace who had led the Phillies not only to the 2007 and 2008 NL East crowns, but also to a substantial lead in mid-2009.
While the NL East is not the AL East, it is a difficult division, with the Mets, Braves and Marlins all very competitive every year. Again, perhaps it is Hamels, like Burnett, who is the gutsier performer with the will to win.
This is not to question Halladay’s will or desire to win, but the record shows that he’s never led any of his teams to the playoffs, whereas Burnett has been on two World Series teams, as has Hamels. This may be closely related to the fact that Hamels and Burnett are both strikeout pitchers, while Halladay is not really a strikeout pitcher.
In the 2007 postseason, even though he gave up three runs and lost, Hamels had seven strikeouts and only gave up three hits, even though the Rockies won the game. Even in losing, Hamels pitched tough.
In the 2008 postseason, Hamels was untouchable through the NLDS, the NLCS and the World Series, and won the MVP for the 2008 World Series. Even though the Phils won in five games, all but one of those games were one-run wins, and but for Hamels and Lidge, the Phils would not have won over a very fine Blue James team that beat the Yanks and Red Sox in the AL East to get to the Series. Hamels was unbelievably great in October of 2008, and even when the Commissioner of Baseball, Bud Selig, attempted to take Hamels’ Game Five win away from him by allowing play to continue in the rain until BJ Upton scored a tying run in the mud and slop of a drenching rainstorm before Selig “suspended” play for the first time in a modern World Series game, Hamels maintained his calm demeanor.
In the 2009 postseason, while not quite as sharp, Hamels did the job through the NLDS and NLCS as the Phils marched through the Rockies (exacting revenge for 2007) and the Dodgers in five games each. In the World Series, Hamels in critical game 3 was pitching a no-hitter through three innings with lots of strikeouts when again, the Commissioner of Baseball interfered with another Hamels game by illegally reviewing an obvious ground-rule double/in live play Alex Rodriguez ball that struck a camera that was in the field of play, erroneously ruling that the ball had “stuck an object over the fence in flight” and ruling the ball a home run on instant replay (from a lawyers room in the Commissioner’s Office in New York, Bud Selig again), turning second and third and a 3-0 lead into a 3-2 one run game.
(see my prior blog on this subject posted a couple of weeks back for an explanation of why the double hit by rodriquez was not subject to instant replay review under the rules of baseball–in fact, the next night they pushed the camera back and out of the field of play, proving my point entirely).
This time, Hamels did not react as coolly and he gave up three more runs the next inning and had to be removed. Nonetheless, he had struck out numerous Yankees, and only given up a very few hits when he was replaced, and the home run by Rodriguez was bogus. Some would argue that forces in New York wanted to see the Yankees succeed at any cost, even if it mean rattling Hamels’ cage to do it.
It certainly is suspicious that the Commissioner of Baseball and the umpires would interfere with two Hamels World Series games in consecutive years to the detriment of the Phillies.
But then again there are those who still think JFK was shot by a lone gunmen, or that money doesn’t buy influence in politics, or that drinking, gambling, staying up late and going out with the ladies is the best preparation for professional athletic contests even if your name isn’t babe ruth.
At any rate, Hamels still pitched well in spite of everything, and even if the Yanks got runs off him, he still pitched well enough to win if the Rodriguez ball hadn’t been called a home run.
The bottom line is that Hamels is a good postseason pitcher.
Note also that Hamels did not disintegrate on the mound like AJ Burnett did on three days rest in Game 5 of the World Series after throwing a masterpiece in game 2.
CLEAR ADVANTAGE: HAMELS.
Seventh: Career Comparison suggests that Hamels’ 2009 Stats following 2008 are a lot like Steve Carlton’s 1973 Stats following 1972.
In 1972, Steve Carlton won the Cy Young, working more than 300 innings and winning 29 games and losing only 10, striking out more than 300 batters with a miniscule ERA, for a last place Phillies team that frankly, was dreadful. The next year, Carlton lost twenty games or nearly that, with a much higher ERA, and about a .500 winning record. It took Carlton a year or too to get back his mojo, but he once again became a regular twenty game winner, and went on to win three or four more Cy Young Awards, and one of the most feared, dominant pitchers in the league, and a feared, dominant post-season pitcher as well, eventually winning game six over the Kansas City Royals in the 1980 World Series to clinch for the Phillies their first World Championship.
If you normalize Cole Hamels’ stats for 2008 and 2009, and also Steve Carlton’s stats for 1972 and 1973, either back to 1972 or up to 2008, you will quickly see that the two pairs of years by the two pitchers look very, very similar.
This suggest strongly that Hamels’ year this past year is not a sign of his moving backwards, but merely that after a huge year last year (like Carlton’s first huge year), some pitchers tend to regress back towards to mean, first because of pitcher workload reasons, and second for psychological reasons.
Carlton’s answer was to stop talking to the media and intensify his legenday workout program.
Hamels has already shown signs of this. He’s indicated first, that he was mentally drained from last year, indicating that psychology was a factor for him. Second, he’s indicated that he will be speaking less to the media and at public events this offseason, and working harder on conditioning. Third, he’s made it clear that he wants redemption and wants to come back next year in excellent physical shape, ready to compete at a high level.
Consequently, there is some reason to believe that Hamels’ career arc will be like Carlton’s—there may be offyears, but the high points will be very high indeed—Cy Young Years, MVP Years, years when he leads the NL in strikeouts, shutouts and the like.
Consequently, the Phillies should not trade Hamels.
–art kyriazis, philly
home of the 2008 world champion phillies
Jimmy Rollins, three straight gold gloves, 2007-2009
Shane Victorino, two straight gold gloves, 2008-2009
Chase Utley, four straight Silver Slugger Awards, 2b, 2006-2009
2007, 2008, 2009 NL East Division Champions
2008, 2009 NL Pennant Winners
1976-1978, 1980, 1983, 1993 NL East Division Champions
1981 NL East Divisional Playoffs.
1915, 1950, 1980, 1983, 1993 NL Pennant Champions
1980 World Champions
CONGRATS TO THE YANKS, BUT WHERE’S THEIR MEDICAID CARDS?
November 5, 2009
Well the yanks finally did it.
Five years and nine months after trading Alfonso Soriano for Alex Rodriguez in February of 2004, their master plan of winning the World Series and avenging their defeats at the hands of first the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2001 (Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson) and then the Florida Marlins in 2003 (Josh Beckett) finally came to fruition.
Well, not exactly. There were some weird detours in the road.
First, in 2004, they ALMOST got there. they hung a 3-0 lead on the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS–and you know the rest. They caved, the choked, they lost four straight–the only team in baseball history to do that–and the Red Sox reversed the curse and won the world series in 2004.
In 2005, the Yanks lost to the Angels in the AL Division Series. This was pretty awful. The Angels didn’t even make it to the Series–the White Sox did, and the White Sox won and reversed their Curse and won the series against the Houston Astros, which appeared in the series for the first time.
In 2006, the Yanks tried again. This time, they were destroyed by the Detroit Tigers 3-1 in the ALDivision Series, but at least the Tigers got to the World Series. But the Tigers, who had great pitching and Jimmy Leyland as manager, lost to the St Louis Cards and Tony LaRussa. That was a real upset, since the Cards had won only 83 games all season long.
In 2007, the Cleveland Indians, with a couple of guys named Cliff Lee and CC Sabathia, knocked the Yanks out of the AL Division Series for the third year in a row, 3-1. The Red Sox edged the powerful Indians 4-3 in the ALCS (which was probably the real world series) and then went on to sweep the hapless Colorado Rockies 4-0, who were probably just happy to be making their first appearance in world series play.
So now, since AROD had arrived, the yanks had 1) made one of the all time chokes in alcs history in 2004, and 2) lost three straight ALDS series for the first time in who knows when…
Did they trade A-ROD? of course not..they fired Joe Torre instead…
and in 2008, the Yankees missed the playoffs entirely, while the tampa bay rays (they took the name devil out, pleasing god) and the red sox took the two playoff spots in the al east. tampa disposed of the white sox while boston beat the angels, and then tampa got rid of the red sox in a great seven game alcs.
meanwhile, the phillies, who had edged out the mets in 2007 to win the nl east, only to be swept out in the nlds by the rockies, won the nl east again in 2008, and this time, they took care of business, beating the Brewers with cc sabathia, and then meeting–the la dodgers with joe torre as manager.
so in 2008 joe torre got to the playoffs but a rod did not.
hmmmm
the dodgers played the phils tough but the phils won in 5 in the nlcs, setting up a great world series, which was dominated by cole hamels and brad lidge’s great pitching.
Those scores, if you recall, were;
g1 philly 3-2
g2 tampa 4-2
g3 philly 5-4
g4 philly 10-2
g5 philly 4-3
notice that this was a low-scoring series with 3 one run games and a two run game and only one blowout? both tampa bay and the phillies had great pitching, great fielding, great speed, and great defense.
This year, the yanks decided to get drastic. they opened their wallets and bought;
1) cc sabathia
2) aj burnett and
3) mark teixeira
well, these were wise investments. the yanks won 103 games with these three guys, and blew through the playoffs to the world series.
burnett won one key game in the series. sabathia was solid in two games of the series, even if he lost game one. teixeira was an animal who had to be pitched around even if he wasn’t great, so a rod got more pitches to hit.
but as great as this team now is, there’s a big problem.
it took them so long to get here, the core is old.
1 C Jorge Posada# 37
4 SS Derek Jeter 35
5 3B Alex Rodriguez 33
6 LF Johnny Damon* 35
9 DH Hideki Matsui* 35
11 C Jose Molina 34
23 P Andy Pettitte* 37
24 P A.J. Burnett 32
29 P Mariano Rivera 39
Nick Swisher is 28, and Mark Teixeira is 29, so actually they might be expected to decline in the years ahead.
But clearly, athletes after age 27 or 28 have age related declines, and athletes after age 35, have sharp age related declines and are subject to career ending injuries.
The yankees are simply not just old, they are geriatric at five key batting positions, and three key pitching positions.
They also lack a #4 and a #5 starter, and lack depth in the bullpen.
Melkey Cabrera can’t field, and he can’t hit.
Hideki Matsui is a free agent in any case, and wants to go to the west coast by all accounts. He wants a lot more money.
CC Sabathia is 28, but let’s face it, the man looks like he lives on a diet of pizza and philly cheesesteaks. when i told my kids he was 28, my daughter, who is 15, remarked, “he looks like he’s 45″ or something like that.
pitchers with cc sabathia’s build and body type don’t tend to age well, and do tend to come down with arm problems, as opposed to pitchers with cole hamels or cliff lee’s body type.
for example, brett myers has always been overweight. this is one of the reasons he’s been injury prone his whole career. a pitcher needs to be light and have good mechanics to stay healthy over the course of a season.
cliff lee has beautiful mechanics.
the good news for the yanks is they have a lot of good young pitchers who may mature into much better pitchers. i like their young staff and i believe that one or two or more of them will emerge as real winners next year–after all, they have a good offense behind them.
I should point out one last point–the sabrmetrician in me needs to. Although the Yankees won 103 and lost 59, their pythagorean won lost record was only 95-67, based on their scoring 915 runs and allowing 753 runs. That means that they won eight more games than they should have based on random or luck factors–regression to the mean would suggest that they are actually a 95 win ball club that got a bit lucky this year. They did have a 22-16 record in one run games, which perhaps explains some of this disparity. Also, the Yanks were 7-3 in extra inning games as well.
But those kind of results tend to even out over seasons.
Assuming they regress back to 95 wins, and lose 7-8 wins off of that due to age or related factors, the yankees might not even get back to the playoffs in 2010.
The Yankees to get back, need to retool, get younger, and address their serious aging problem.
I will address the Phillies in a separate article.
In the meantime, the Yankees and their fans should enjoy their parade. It’s very likely the last hurrah of a great core that has now won five world championships in 14 seasons since 1996, and appeared in seven world series during that time, just about half of them. It’s a truly remarkable achievement.
Jeter, Rivera, Posada, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettite, all now seemed bound to cash in their ticket for the Hall of Fame.
Alex Rodriquez has tainted credentials due to steroid use. I personally would not vote for him, or any other steroid user. At least I would take a wait and see attitude on those guys. Roger Clemens, who was a key part of several of those teams, is also now a problem child due to steroid allegations, but Clemens is also clearly perhaps the greatest pitcher who ever took the mound, so he’s kind of a borderline issue case, whereas Rodriguez is kind of like Vern Stephens on steroids.
So hats off the yanks, and make sure their medicaid cards and long term care policies are paid for.
–art k philly
home of Mr. November, Chase Utley
Home of the 2008 World Champion Phillies
“it was a very good year” –frank sinatra
